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26 Jul 2024
Stabilisation leads to growth
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Stabilisation leads to growth
Gecina (GFC:EPA), 0 | Gecina SA (GFC:PAR), 0
- Published:
26 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Jones Rob RJ | King Samuel SK -
Pages:
9 -
Results ahead of our expectations
Gecina delivered strong H1 LfL rental growth across the office portfolio of +6.5% with portfolio values flat in aggregate across the wider portfolio. We had previously been expecting asset values to decline in H124 (before troughing in H224) so this stabilisation (Paris City was +2%) should be welcomed by the market. In terms of other positive surprises, Recurrent Net Income was up an impressive +8.4% in 2024 and Gecina is now focusing on future earnings growth opportunities, utilising its solid balance sheet for value accretive capex. We were slightly surprised to not see an earnings guidance upgrade, but believe there is still scope for this at the time of the Q324 results.
Portfolio value stabilised
We were forecasting Paris office assets to still experience notable capital value declines in both H124 and H224 and whilst there has been some pressure on secondary asset values, it appears that prime asset values have now stabilised at around the 4.0%-4.25% yield level. Going forward, as prime rents continue to grow, we could see positive capital value growth and NTAs (where we are 6% ahead of FY25 consensus) now having reached their troughs.
Refocus on growth
As a result of the positive outlook for further rental growth and the company seeing a stabilisation in portfolio values (and thus LTV at a sensible 35%), Gecina is committing to 2 new redevelopment projects driving EUR280m of capex and EUR30m of incremental rents. Total committed capex now stands at EUR850m, forecast to deliver c.EUR100-120m of potential new rental upside, alongside indexation.
Upgrade to Outperform, TP EUR120
Gecina has underperformed YTD, down some 16% vs -3% for the wider sector. Whilst some of this underperformance is driven by French political uncertainty, we see the stock as undervalued on a 40% disc. to NTA. We retain our EUR120 TP (implying 30% upside) and upgrade to Outperform.