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  • 13 Feb 2025

Strong finish to the year; Cons FY’25 profit estimates to move c+4%


Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Mounsey Jonathan MJ

    • 9 pages


 

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Strong finish to the year; Cons FY’25 profit estimates to move c+4%


Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0

  • Published: 13 Feb 2025
  • Author: Mounsey Jonathan MJ
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Legrand has reported Q4 numbers; key takeaways include... . Q4 Sales: EUR2,420m, 5% ahead of Co. Consensus with Legrand delivering YoY organic growth of 6.2% (Consensus at 2.6%). Regionally, North and Central America delivered a stellar 13% rate of organic sales growth (VA Cons at 5.4%) while Europe delivered a better-than-expected result too (+1.5% v -1.2% expected). Legrand speaks to growth in its data centre business accelerating in Q4, with its Q4 deck depicting growth as (''+++'', relative to ''++'' in Q3) . Q4 Operating profit: EUR500m, 10% ahead of Co. Consensus with margin of 20.7% coming in 100bps ahead of Consensus at 19.7%. Europe was the driver of the beat (profit +c27% ahead of VA Cons), as the margin for the region stood at an impressive 24.1% where VA Cons expected a margin of 20.5%. The margin in North America and Central America looks disappointing considering the strong data centre driven growth delivered in the region (18.8% v VA Cons at 19.7%) but the regions profit was still c3% ahead of VA Cons owing to the strong top line. . Q4 FCF: EUR541m, EUR133m or 32% ahead of Consensus at EUR409m. The conversion ratio was strong at 108%. . FY25e Guidance: 6-10% sales growth (organic + scope) v Cons at 6.7% (3.9% organic; 2.8% scope) and adjusted operating profit margin (after acquisitions) that is expected to stable YoY at 20.5% v Consensus at 20.4%. Note, Legrand is guiding to Scope of +4% and an FX impact of 1.5%. This implies it is guiding for 4% organic sales growth (Cons at 4%) at the mid-point of its guidance, but on higher FY''24 base than Consensus modelled. . Conf call @ 9.30 CET: For the webcast, please register Webcast FY 2024 BNPP Exane View: This was a strong finish to the year, with data centre sales accelerating in Q4 and momentum improving in Europe which allowed for Legrand to post a solid margin and strong profit and FCF beat. Guidance for 2025 on our estimates implies a c4% upgrade at the mid-point (6% at the high end)...

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