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05 Jul 2024
Surfing the Retail Media wave

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Surfing the Retail Media wave
WPP Plc (WPP:LON), 375 | Publicis Groupe (PUB:EPA), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (PUB:PAR), 0 | Omnicom Group (OMC:NYSE), 0 | Omnicom Group Inc (OMC:NYS), 0 | Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG:NYSE), 0 | Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (IPG:NYS), 0
- Published:
05 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
62 -
Ad agencies underperformed the market in Q2 24 (-8% rel. MSCI World), impacted by macro uncertainties, soft momentum for consulting services and lack of rebound in tech clients'' spending. We remain positive on the sector, but we think it is important to be selective and favour companies with differentiated assets (data, tech, e-com), good exposure to fast-growing segments (Retail Media, CTV), efficient platform organization and solid balance sheets. In this note we investigate the Retail Media opportunities for agencies. We keep our preference for PUB and OMC in the sector.
PUB/OMC appear best positioned to benefit from Retail Media (RM) trend
Retail Media (c.9% of total ad spend in 2023) remains among the fastest-growing channels (c.+15% growth pa 2023-2026) adding a net c.+40bp growth to global ad spend p.a. While all top agencies are exposed to RM through their Media activities, we think Publicis (through Epsilon, CitrusAd, Profitero) and Omnicom (through Flywheel) are the best positioned to benefit from this trend as they have acquired specific capabilities to address the segment. Both companies should see c.20-40bp boost to organic sales growth (OSG) driven by Retail Media. This is not to say IPG or WPP won''t benefit as well; in fact, both have recently announced account win or partnerships with retailers.
We could still see major growth divergence in Q2 between PUB/OMC and IPG/WPP
While we expect top agencies'' OSG to improve to +2.7% in Q224 vs +2.2% in Q124, there should still be a major gap between PUB/OMC (4.5% OSG) and IPG/WPP (2% OSG). Given recent business win momentum, trend could persist in the next quarters.
Near term uncertainties likely to affect share price performance for IPG/WPP
Apart from slower OSG, IPG and WPP also faced near term uncertainties from the renewal of two key accounts-Amazon Media (managed by IPG) and Unilever Media (by WPP). While we assume both companies will retain those contracts, we believe the...