Time to shift the debate from dividend resilience to dividend growth For most of 2020, the investment debate for UK Life has focused on balance sheet resilience and dividend sustainability. The COVID downturn is far from over - but we think the sub-sector has shown resilience despite market volatility. Brexit trading terms are still up in the air, but we sense that the investment debate is shifting from the question of whether balance sheets can withstand the shock towards whether and by how much dividends can grow. Aviva (+) - potential for GBP4.5bn of buy-backs and DPS upside The downwards re-set of the dividend is a function of a shrinking perimeter. There are reasonable questions about the organic growth the company can achieve from here. But working through the potential disposals of the non-core operations, we think there is potential for GBP4.5bn of buy-backs and GBP3.3bn of debt redemption by the end of 2023. And the resulting business would be more focused; be less exposed to European life; and carry a lower level of debt, reducing the CoE. LandG (+) - sustainable compounding organic growth LandG''s growth in capital-intensive bulk annuities has created Solvency strain. There has been a long-standing question about how it funds this growth. We examine the drivers of capital strain to test management''s view that the annuity book is approaching self-sustainability. We continue to think this is an attractive compounder, redeploying its earnings at a RoE in the high teens. Phoenix (=) - wait and see before pencilling-in DPS increases The new management team not only wants to replace run-off cashflows with new business - it wants to grow the flows, and thereby grow the dividend. We examine whether management''s ambitions stack up. A lot depends on a big expansion of the bulk annuity business on improved economics. This will be a stretch: we will wait for delivery before giving the benefit of the doubt. MandG (=) - is Wealth the next source...