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29 Mar 2023
The going''s getting even better

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The going''s getting even better
- Published:
29 Mar 2023 -
Author:
Ghayor Lina LG | Packer William WP -
Pages:
17 -
We are turning even more bullish on the advertising agency sub-segment
After having been cautiously optimistic on the ad agency outlook throughout COVID-19 and the Ukraine/Russia conflict, we are turning even more bullish. We believe that the agency model is stronger than the market currently prices in, and that this sub-segment should be on the more ''quality side'' of the media sector instead of the ''cheap cyclical'' side of it, given: i) more visible organic growth and ii) mid to high single digit EPS growth and double digit FCF yield. (See our sector report here.)
Publicis''s first-mover advantage should compound over time
We continue to like Publicis Groupe''s first mover advantage in revenue diversification towards faster growing revenue streams such as Epsilon, Sapient, Retail Media (Food retail, Staples and Media - the rebalancing) and Production, but also cost efficiency, on shared-services and offshoring (we estimate that the company has c30% of its headcount offshore versus peers at c10%).
Raising our forecasts and our TP to EUR95 (from EUR82)
We increase our organic net sales growth expectations by 50bps for FY23e from 4.2% to 4.7% (towards the high end of company guidance) and our 24e/25e forecasts by 140bps/50bps. We also increase by 20bps our 24e/25e operating margin to 18.4% in 2025e to reflect higher operating leverage. We raise our TP to EUR95, as a result of our higher short and longer term forecasts and a slightly lower WACC. We stand 7% above consensus FY23e EPS, and 6% above for FY24 EPS, reflecting our more bullish approach on operating leverage.
We reiterate our Outperform rating on Publicis Groupe
In a sub-sector that is set, in our view, to benefit from a re-rating, we continue to see Publicis Groupe as a strong long-term play. At 10x PE 24e and 11% FCF Yield, we believe the risk reward is very appealing and rate Publicis Groupe Outperform.