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07 Nov 2024
The issue is the growth, not the margin

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The issue is the growth, not the margin
Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0
- Published:
07 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ -
Pages:
11 -
European softness drives Q3 profit miss
Third quarter sales came in -2% light, driven by weakness in Europe, where organic sales growth was -3.8%. North and Central America and RoW at 5.9% and 4.3% respectively fared better. The Europe Building market remains weak. Partly due to deterioration of demand in mature countries. The Company says that trends do not point to a recovery in the short-term. United States sales were up 7.2%. The Chinese construction markets suffered a sharp drop off. Brazilian sales rose 7.6%. Group third quarter operating profit was -5.6% light of Consensus, mostly because of that sales weakness in Europe.
Guidance tweaked; a lack of volume growth is the issue
Full year sales growth guidance was reiterated (low single digit including scope of consolidation). Management redefined its adjusted operating margin guidance from pre to post MandA. This initially seemed to be a downgrade to guidance, however, management clarified that expectations for the FY24e ''all in'' adjusted margin have not changed. Despite this clarification, margins will likely remain a focus for some; however, profitability is, in our view, the real the issue. Legrand shares suffer because of the Company''s current lack of relative volume growth. Electrification peers are currently growing their volumes far faster than Legrand. Schneider''s Energy Management delivered organic sales growth of 11.6% in Q3, while Legrand grew at just 1.7%. The gap is due to many drivers, and not all of them will persist forever, but in the end, it is tough for a share to outperform its peers when top line momentum diverges in such a material manner. We see no reason to believe that Legrand''s end markets will support a recoupling of its growth rate to peers any time soon.
Updating estimates; TP to EUR100 p/s (from EUR105 p/s)
We update our estimates and SOTP25e. As a result, our TP declines to EUR100 p/s.