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28 Feb 2025
The last cut?

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The last cut?
- Published:
28 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP | Faure Alexandre AF -
Pages:
10 -
Weaker Q4 and FY 2025 guidance
Sopra Steria reported disappointing Q4 results and FY 2025 guidance. LFL growth reached -2.7% in the quarter (Q3: 0%), below cons. at -1.2%. FY 24 adjusted EBIT margin was 9.7% vs. guidance of 9.7%, while FCF was strong at EUR432m (guidance: c. EUR350m), helped by a EUR45m one-off related to SFT in Germany. For FY 2025, the company expects -2.5% to +0.5% LFL growth, with Q1 starting down -5%/-6%, and adjusted EBIT margin of 9.3-9.8% including 30bps of headwind from hikes in employer charges in the UK and France, below pre-release expectations of 10.0%.
Visibility remains low on H2 re-acceleration; UK VI contract loss is disappointing
Management announced the loss of the visa contract in the UK to a competitor, which comes ahead of major expected renewals with the SSCL JV later this year, reversing a few years of stronger commercial momentum in the country. Pipeline for H2 is strong, but visibility on conversion remains low, making the prospect of an underlying re-acceleration (beyond low comps) still uncertain.
Changes to our estimates, TP down to EUR210 (from EUR220)
We have cut our adjusted EBIT estimates by 6-9% over FY 2025-28E (details p. 2) as we turn more cautious on topline and margin developments in the years to come. Our adjusted EPS goes down by a lesser extent as we reflect the impact of the buyback on the share count. For FY 2025 specifically, we now model -1.8% LFL growth and 9.4% adjusted EBIT margin. TP down to EUR210.
Outperform maintained
Sopra Steria disappointed on its midterm guidance in mid-December last year, and the soft FY 2025 guidance probably explains mgt''s reluctance to provide early indications on 2025 at this time. The good thing is that expectations might finally have been reset for good. However, timing of a potential inflection remains uncertain. We keep our Outperform rating as we find valuation attractive at 9% FCF yield 2025E with virtually no debt, vs. c. 7.5% 10-year average.