With the Q3 over, we reassess trends at ad agencies and the larger ad ecosystem. Agency growth versus big tech, operating leverage and revenue visibility were the key focus. We present our 3 lessons from Q3 and reiterate our preference for Publicis Groupe and Interpublic. Lesson #1: Advertising agencies closing the gap with big tech The performance gap has narrowed. Ad agencies beat expectations and raised FY22e organic growth outlook, while US platforms, and more importantly social platforms (SNAP, Twitter, META), saw slowing growth and started to take corporate actions (FTE reduction, cost-cutting, etc). Lesson #2: All operating models are not equal Publicis was the only ad agency that upgraded its margin outlook, underpinning our view that not all organic growth is equal, with operating model efficiency being a key driver to protect EPS. Lesson #3: Diversification does matter for ad agencies Asset mix diversification is likely to mitigate top-line headwinds. No longer are all agency revenues are exposed to the ad market. New services typically include multi-year contracts, recurring revenues (licensing fees, consulting fees, etc.) and e-commerce/data-led activities. Two things to monitor: Larger ad ecosystem and Top70 advertisers'' outlook still supportive Our Advertisers'' AandP Outlook Monitor suggests agency clients will likely continue to spend in 2023, even more so after successive price increases. Top-line consensus revisions favour agencies. The worse may (not!) happen - a repeat of 2009 marketing budget cuts would be less severe Marketing budget cuts similar to 2009 are in our view unlikely next year. Ad market dynamics have changed (with digital accounting for c10% in 2009 versus 67% today), and brands can monitor and adapt their budgets much more rapidly and effectively with measurement and data. We believe a slow fade in marketing expenses is more likely than sharp cuts. Our forecasts and TP are unchanged for our agency...