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05 Jul 2024
The power of Epsilon in the equation

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The power of Epsilon in the equation
- Published:
05 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
34 -
We believe Publicis remains best placed to outperform peers thanks to its scale (notably Media in the US), attractive business mix (c.33% sales on tech/data), exposure to fast-growing segments (Retail Media), competitive advantages in the GenAI thematic and efficient platform/cost structures. This should underpin +4.5-5% organic growth pa, +200bps vs. peers, while maintaining the highest margins and FCF conversion in the sector. We think Publicis is well positioned to benefit from Retail Media growth given differentiated assets. Our reverse SOTP suggests these assets are under-appreciated by the market. We reiterate Outperform and raise our TP to EUR125 (from EUR120).
We turn more constructive on Epsilon
After dissecting Epsilon''s underlying market growth drivers, its differentiated offering, and self-help initiatives, we turn more positive on Epsilon and raise our organic growth forecast to c.8%+ pa (vs. +6% before). This alone adds c.+40bps to our Publicis group organic growth. Epsilon''s impact goes beyond its standalone unit and supports all other verticals (Creative, Media, Gen AI, Tech).
Recent account gains to support growth momentum
Publicis recently secured key account wins including Pfizer (creative), Lego (media) Spotify (media) and L''Oreal (UK Media). This should more than offset the loss of some of GM creative business. All else equal, recent net new business wins should contribute c.1% to organic sales in 2025.
Sapient remains soft for now, but we expect a pick-up from 2025
We lower our Sapient FY24 LFL sales estimates to +1% from +3% given recent peer commentary and muted performance. But we are optimistic Sapient will be accretive to group mid-term growth.
Estimates slightly up on stronger organic sales, target price up to EUR125 (from EUR120)
We raise our 2025 and 2026 Adj. EPS estimates by c.+1% on higher organic growth (+4.5-5% vs c4% previously), notably at Epsilon as well as Creative/Media (reflecting recent net business wins).