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21 Oct 2022
The risk of rising expectations

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The risk of rising expectations
- Published:
21 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Pearson Stuart SP | Cresswell Dorothee DC -
Pages:
14 -
Management''s tone remains supremely confident. Yet with macro clouds gathering and BEV profitability prospects darkening, we remain concerned around margin sustainability into 2023.
What did we learn from the quarter?
Renault has delivered yet another strong quarter, with pricing and mix boosting revenue by 13.5% (price +12.8%, mix +0.7%). This was light vs. cons. of +15.1% (+11.8% price, +3.3% mix), which had drifted up into the print, but impressive nonetheless. Volume growth managed to beat expectations, albeit helped by dealer restocking. Perhaps the biggest surprise came from management''s confidence around prospects for ''23 with the CFO adamant that pricing will stick (given a lower fixed cost base and a de-prioritization of market share), mix will improve (thanks to eMegane and Austral) and that the two will combine with productivity gains to offset inflationary pressures. Moreover, order books remain at H1''s levels, and are equivalent to 3.5 months of sales.
How does it change our investment view?
It''s hard not to be impressed with the ongoing delivery of price gains or the strength of Renault''s new line-up as it pushes into the C segment. We remain to be convinced however, that this is really enough to turn the story ''contra-cyclical'' given both the magnitude of the macro challenges currently brewing and more gloomy prospects for BEV profitability (higher costs, falling TCO advantages, scaled back incentives and greater competition). We continue to see downside risk to consensus expectations, which currently assume that (auto) margins rise through 2023 and 2024. Near term, however, the share price is likely to benefit from the prospect of November''s CMD, where the group will update mid- and longer-term targets and present a new corporate structure. The share price could also be impacted by the potential announcement of changes to the Renault Nissan alliance.
Earnings, rating and target price changes
We adjust our forecasts to...