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Thesis galvo-nised; bull-bear €373-130
UCB (UCB:EBR), 0 | UCB S.A. (UCB:BRU), 0
- Published:
23 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Floch Victor VF | Verdult Peter PV | Ross-Stewart Kirsty KS | Roy Angelin AR -
Pages:
27 -
A detailed update of our model supports a revised EUR235 PT and attractive EUR373-130 bull-bear valuation range (WACC 8.5%, g=2%). While UCB has become more consensual we continue to have points of differentiation. We anticipate material patent term extensions to be granted for key growth drivers, continue to argue Evenity and royalty contributions are significantly underappreciated, and carry materially higher pipeline forecasts. Galvokimig has the potential to be a $10bn mega-blockbuster based on efficacy/safety data seen to date and KOL/EADV feedback.
EPS upgrades up to 50%; BNPP Exane EPS up to 54% ahead of consensus
We now model a faster ramp, higher peak, and extended patent protection for Bimzelx until 2037. We continue to argue Evenity is materially underappreciated (EUR0.6-1.2bn annual profit share up to 60% ahead of consensus) and carry EUR4.5/1.5bn risk-adjusted peak sales forecasts for galvokimig/donzakimig in atopic dermatitis. Galvokimig essentially a ''pipeline in an asset'' and will likely be explored beyond AD. Our forecasts reflect EUR100m+ of tariff costs from 2027 and cumulative RandD/capex spend of EUR36/9bn through 2040. We forecast net cash from 2026; FCF yield 3-17%.
Bimzelx momentum strong; we remain sanguine ahead of Moonlake data
We publish highly encouraging EU/US IQVIA Rx trends. As expected, recent Ph II competitor datasets from Incyte/Sanofi in HS failed to match Bimzelx, which itself recently posted stellar 3YR data. We expect Moonlake Ph III 16-week data imminently; KOL feedback suggests a HiSCR75 placebo adjusted response rate 30% needed to be considered potentially differentiated. Regardless, low biologic penetration and label breadth leave us comfortable with Bimzelx''s position.
2026/27 PE 25/17x for a 2025-30e revenue/EPS CAGR of 12/27%
UCB''s valuation and growth stacks up well versus EU Pharma on 13x offering a 2025-30e revenue/EPS CAGR of just 6/9%. Our PT implies a deserved 91% 2026e PE premium.