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  • 01 Aug 2024

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Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP:ELI), 0 | Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (BCP:LIS), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Ulargui Ignacio IUL | Toutounji Cyril CT

    • 13 pages


 

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Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP:ELI), 0 | Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (BCP:LIS), 0

  • Published: 01 Aug 2024
  • Author: Ulargui Ignacio IUL | Toutounji Cyril CT
  • Pages: 13
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Flawless delivery BCP''s 2Q24 results were satisfactory on all counts, delivering a 36% beat to consensus at the bottom line. The beat''s magnitude is explained by lower quality items, but key lines were also ahead of expectations. Overall, total revenues were flat in the quarter despite the contribution to the Resolution fund in Portugal and costs were disciplined as ever, flat QoQ. Provisions were a key positive, driven by releases in Portugal and the tax rate continues to be supportive in Poland (CHF mortgage linked DTA). CET1 ratio was up 20bps QoQ to 16.2%, on an inexorable upward path. Balance sheet trends were supportive too, with flat loans QoQ and 2% higher deposits, driven by all geographies. BCP is proving once again the strength of its business model, generating a c.14% RoTE and supported by a profitable Portuguese bank with resilient NIM. Dissipating the remaining clouds: capital returns ahead? BCP has de-risked its Portuguese balance sheet over the past few years and continues to do so, pushing the bank closer to peers, which we think should be supportive for profitability going forward. As regards Poland, the end of the CHF mortgages issue should be supportive to the bottom line from 2025 onwards. Finally, the bank now has one of the highest buffers to MDA in the sector (650bps), which the bank suggested would be distributed at least partially. We think BCP can distribute massive amounts of excess capital to shareholders over the next few periods, and we believe it can be the next step of an already attractive investment case. A cheap, high RoTE bank with capital optionality - we remain Outperform with 56c TP Following 2Q24 results, we have updated our estimates to reflect the solid performance of key operating lines and improve our EPS by c2.5% on average for 24-26e. Hence, we upgrade our target price to EUR56c (vs. EUR54c previously).

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