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  • 15 Dec 2023

Topsports 3Q24 Takeaways


adidas AG (ADS:ETR), 0 | PUMA SE (PUM:ETR), 0 | Skechers USA (SKX:NYSE), 0 | Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Class A (SKX:NYS), 0 | Nike (NKE:NYSE), 0 | NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE:NYS), 0 | Deckers Outdoor (DECK:NYSE), 0 | Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK:NYS), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Okines Warwick WO | Vasilescu Laurent LV | Siew Xian XS | Tianello Aubrey AT | Yang Leah LY

    • 19 pages


 

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Topsports 3Q24 Takeaways


adidas AG (ADS:ETR), 0 | PUMA SE (PUM:ETR), 0 | Skechers USA (SKX:NYSE), 0 | Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Class A (SKX:NYS), 0 | Nike (NKE:NYSE), 0 | NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE:NYS), 0 | Deckers Outdoor (DECK:NYSE), 0 | Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK:NYS), 0

  • Published: 15 Dec 2023
  • Author: Okines Warwick WO | Vasilescu Laurent LV | Siew Xian XS | Tianello Aubrey AT | Yang Leah LY
  • Pages: 19
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Topsports reported 3Q24 total sales up low teens YoY after 2Q declined LSD. We listened to the earnings call held in Mandarin this morning and relay key takeaways: 1) Trends improved in 3Q and continued into December but likely due to noisy compares from Covid disruption, 2) YTD performance remained at 80-85% of 2019 levels and 3) emerging brands continue to outperform. 3Q up low teens off very easy compares 3Q24 revenues (November end) were up low teens compared to 3Q23 down high teens YoY. We note that LY''s Zero Covid disruptions started in October and really accelerated in November before ultimately the government dropped the policy in early December LY. We estimate Topsports'' September/October time period was up only single digits before accelerating in November off easy Covid compares. This is similar to Pou Sheng''s reported Sept up 9%, Oct down 4%, Nov up 19% = 7% growth for September-November combined (see figure 2 on page 2). When asked during the QandA, Topsports mgmt. noted that YTD revenue performance is still only 80-85% of 2019 levels. December so far in line with 3Q Management noted that December so far is in line with 3Q results (up low teens). We know that Pou Sheng was down 29% YoY in December last year, which was the height of the Zero Covid disruptions. If December is up low teens, this would imply a deceleration on a two year stack. We heard from Starbucks that the Chinese consumer is weakening. Similarly, we''ve heard from Asia-based clients that since our trip in October, consumer sentiment is deteriorating and there is trade down. Topsports also noted that we should consider that CNY is Feb 10, 2024 vs Jan 22, 2023. What about the brands? Nike/adidas represent 86% of sales. They noted that the other brands were outperforming. They didn''t mention HOKA this morning but we note that the store roll out has begun. Topsports noted the drag on adidas sales from terminating Yeezy and downsizing its Neo line. More on page 2.

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Nike Inc.: Continued Franchise Expansion, Digital Growth, And The LetsRun.com Acquisition – Key Drivers, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (04/23)

Companies: Nike (NKE:NYSE)NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE:NYS)

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More details on the SPEEDFACTORY

Companies: adidas AG

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Skechers Inc.: Key Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (02/23)

Companies: Skechers USA (SKX:NYSE)Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Class A (SKX:NYS)

Baptista Research

Adidas' management team may or may not change

Companies: adidas AG

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Skechers USA Inc: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (01/23)

Companies: Skechers USA (SKX:NYSE)Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Class A (SKX:NYS)

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