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31 Jul 2025
Tweaking estimates, leasing risk pushed back
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Tweaking estimates, leasing risk pushed back
Gecina (GFC:EPA), 0 | Gecina SA (GFC:PAR), 0
- Published:
31 Jul 2025 -
Author:
King Samuel SK -
Pages:
10 -
Updated forecasts
We have upgraded our FY25 earnings estimate by 1% following the interim results last week but leave our FY26 and FY27 estimates unchanged and still forecast a 3-year EPS CAGR of ~3%. We thought the interim results were decent, underpinned by good leasing performance and reversion capture, led by +25% uplifts on Paris renewals. This more than offset weaker performance in non-central locations. Looking forwards, we retain confidence in the Pairs portfolio that we think will offset risk of rising vacancy elsewhere. We leave our FY25 EPRA NTA estimate of EUR148 unchanged, which supports our forecast for an 8.1% total accounting return for the year.
Kicking the can down the road?
Comparing lease expiry profiles from FY24 and 1H25, we note that 2026 break options outside of Paris have increased 37% (by sqm), while average headline rent per sqm has fallen 13% during the period. To us, this suggests several short-term lease extensions have been granted during the period to support occupancy, likely in the ''other locations'' portfolio where GRI fell 7% but occupancy rose. In our view, while FY25 earnings are now largely de-risked, this adds incremental leasing risk to FY26, in addition to FY27 that has material expiries and is when three major office development projects are scheduled to complete.
Valuation - retain EUR102 TP
At the company level, we think Gecina is doing little wrong. We view recent capital allocation favourably, including successful disposals at material premiums to book value and swift redeployment of proceeds into earnings accretive acquisitions with development upside. We think share price performance has been hampered more by French political risk rather than bottom-up fundamentals. We think the valuation remains attractive, with stock trading at a 40% discount to NTA and 7.7% forward earnings yield, and leave our EUR102 TP and Outperform rating unchanged.