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23 Nov 2023
UK Life: Autumn Statement implications & feedback
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 610 | Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN:LON), 239 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 634 | M&G Plc (MNG:LON), 218

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UK Life: Autumn Statement implications & feedback
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 610 | Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN:LON), 239 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 634 | M&G Plc (MNG:LON), 218
- Published:
23 Nov 2023 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
24 -
What we learnt from the UK''s Autumn Statement: pension tweaks marginally negative
The UK Finance Minister''s Autumn statement had more detail on some of the initiatives set out in his Mansion House proposals. Some of these, including Solvency II reform, are positive for the UK life sector and already well understood (see A Match(ing Adjustment) made in heaven). But we would highlight that some of the proposals regarding DC pensions may place some pressure on pricing, albeit at the margins.
We think Phoenix will use a one-off cash benefit to reduce debt
Meanwhile, Phoenix recently announced an upgrade to its 2023 cash remittance targets, reflecting a one-off release from the merger of operating entities. We now expect a GBP250m debt redemption in 2024, and would welcome an explicit plan to use excess cash for further deleveraging - although the increase in cash flexibility also creates the option to fund a buyback or small acquisition.
Feedback on UK Life insurers: sentiment remains weak
Last month, our note UK Life, uncovered addressed the important themes of dividend sustainability, sensitivity to rates, and drivers of cashflow for the UK life insurers. We also addressed the significant debates on each of the four stocks in our coverage, and upgraded our ratings on both Phoenix and MandG to Outperform. Feedback suggests sentiment on the sub-sector remains weak. The MandG upgrade was met favourably, although there was scepticism on the Phoenix case, with concerns on exposure to debt refinancing costs and reliance on management actions. On LandG, investors are wary of committing before hearing from the new CEO.