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18 Oct 2023
UK Life, uncovered
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 542 | Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN:LON), 243 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 578 | M&G Plc (MNG:LON), 210

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UK Life, uncovered
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 542 | Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN:LON), 243 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 578 | M&G Plc (MNG:LON), 210
- Published:
18 Oct 2023 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO -
Pages:
76 -
Earnings don''t cover UK Life pay-outs. Does that matter?
The UK Life dividend cover debate: OK, it''s tight, but let''s keep it in perspective
UK Life payouts now exceed earnings under IFRS 17. This has brought greater focus on dividend cover, with increasing investor interest in the capital generation. Our analysis suggests that cover is tight, and that without management actions, new business strain would eat into capital buffers. But this is at least partly a function of the strong new business outlook - a nice problem to have.
MandG (= +): positive gearing into higher rates
We still have questions about the cash conversion of capital (see here). But we see positive revisions from the gearing of the capital generation into higher bond yields, not least through better prospective asset performance for AM and WP customers. With some of the strongest capital distribution capacity in the sub-sector, good dividend cover on a capital view, plus growth, we upgrade to O/P.
Phoenix (= +): concerns on leverage and cash funding overdone
We hear increasing investor concern about how the dividend is funded, and on leverage. Capital generation cover of the dividend is very reliant on management actions - but this largely reflects the new business ambition. Economic debt leverage is relatively high, but this doesn''t pose a specific constraint, and it''s more than in the price. We upgrade to Outperform.
LandG (+): assessing the options for the new CEO
The choice of an external appointment for CEO puts the strategic direction of the business in focus. We discuss the options available to Simoes, and explain why we see an improvement in the performance of LGIM as the biggest lever for value creation. Investors hoping for a buyback in the near-term will likely be disappointed, but we continue to rate LandG''s compounding potential.
Aviva (=): evaluating Wealth ambitions, as well as takeover candidacy
We kick the tyres on Aviva''s Wealth ambitions. We are sceptical...