With quarterly results starting soon (BlackRock), we update estimates and TPs for the current market backdrop. While there has been a robust rebound in markets, the impact on earnings and TPs has been uneven. We highlight upside risks for BLK (+) and SDR (+). We downgrade DWS to U/P, alongside Aberdeen (-). We are Neutral on Man Group but Q2 could be a negative catalyst. Some beta with the bounce, but flows yet to recover In Q2, asset manager share prices recovered rapidly with a 1 beta. This re-rating to ~11x 12m forward P/E prices reflected an improved outlook for fund flows, we think. While we do see the sector potentially benefitting from European stimulus, improving risk appetite from lower rates and more interest in non-US markets, data remains relatively lacklustre for now. Globally we estimate a ~2% net flow rate for mutual funds and ETFs in Q2, though split ~5% passive and ~0% in active products. Top picks in Asset Management: BlackRock, Schroders and Allfunds BlackRock remains best positioned, despite Q2 only having $81bn of inflows (3% ann.). The recent investor day CMD (Stepping Up) showcased a high base fee growth target (7%) and upside from ETFs, technology and alternatives. We continue to like the ongoing improvements at Schroders (fund performance, costs, wealth/private markets exposure). We also flag Allfunds, which some investors perceive as akin to an asset manager given their role in European fund distribution, but as a platform they have a number of structural appeals including consistent new client wins and high profitability. Cautious on DWS, Man Group and Aberdeen We downgrade DWS (- from =): flow and fund performance has worsened, and we see performance fee risk emerging and challenges to earnings growth beyond 2025. Despite this, DWS has rerated most in the peer group to ~12x fwd EV/NOPAT. Aberdeen (-) has performed well YTD on costs, perceived flow improvement and increased interest in ii, but we ultimately think base...