Including comments on UniCredit implications from Ignacio Ulargui and Cyril Toutounji
What happened?
. STAKE: It emerged over the weekend that UniCredit has built a 4.1% equity stake in Generali over time which it describes as a pure financial investment, not strategic. In addition, it holds a 0.6% stake held as part of ordinary services for its clients.
. FOCUS: UniCredit has reiterated its focus remains on the Commerzbank investment and the tender offer on Banco BPM.
. IMPACT: In terms of capital impact on UniCredit, the bank suggests it is negligible - likely less than 10bps in our view.
. CONTEXT: While this has been described as a pure investment, this takes place in the context of multiple MandA bids within the Italian financial sector, most recently BMPS'' offer for Mediobanca, which owns 13% of Generali. Politico reports that UniCredit''s stake building began before the BMPS offer was announced. It also takes place a few months ahead of Generali''s AGM (8th May).
BNPP Exane View:
. IMPLICATIONS FOR GENERALI: While UniCredit describes the move as purely financial, investors will inevitably speculate as to whether this represents an attempt by UniCredit to influence the outcome of potential MandA, and/or Generali''s AGM. Politico, for instance, notes that the BMPS/Mediobanca bid can be seen as an effort to create a third financial group to rival the existing giants UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo. We note that the stake building may at least partially explain Generali''s strong share price move over the past few months, largely driven by re-rating.
. IMPLICATIONS FOR UCG: We continue to believe that focus on Banco BPM is the priority, and any potential combination with Commerzbank would come after, especially in terms of timing. When the bank built the stake in Commerzbank in September 24, UniCredit''s management never hid their intentions to explore business combinations with Commerzbank. Hence, we think that at this stage the investment in...
