This content is only available within our institutional offering.

31 Oct 2024
Unrewarded resiliency

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Unrewarded resiliency
- Published:
31 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP | Faure Alexandre AF -
Pages:
10 -
+0.0% LFL growth in Q3
Sopra Steria reported reassuring Q3 sales this morning. Total revenue was EUR1,357m, flat organically at cc, broadly in line with cons. at +0.2%. France deteriorated QoQ with consulting still down -5% in the quarter, and Europe was hurt by Germany (-5% driven by public sector), but the UK (+2.3% LFL) and Solutions (+3.9% LFL) were solid.
Strategic continuity
We hosted a lunch with mgt following the Q3 sales release. Mgt highlighted 1/ strengthening of Sopra Steria''s position with Airbus following the extension of framework agreements in September, 2/ idiosyncratic levers to improve margins, which we believe imply Sopra Steria could still slightly improve margins next year even with 3% LFL growth, 3/ continuity in the strategy: the group plans to remain focused on existing geographies and verticals, with no major change in offshoring ratio or only marginally in the UK, for example, 4/ increased focus on ''shareholder-friendliness'', which could for instance result in share buybacks becoming more recurring.
Change to our estimates
We have revised down our organic growth estimate for FY 25 from +3.2% to +1.7% and slightly cut our margin estimates as well (details p. 2). In all, we cut our adjusted EPS by -13%/-7% over FY 25-26E including the impact of the French surtax and exceptional tax on share repurchases. Excluding these impacts, our adjusted EPS would have gone down by c. -5% over FY 25-26E.
Outperform, TP down to EUR240 (from EUR245)
Sopra Steria''s Q3 sales came as a relief following a series of warnings in the sector, demonstrating again the resilience of the group''s vertical exposure and the consistency of its delivery. At c. 11% FCF yield 2025E with virtually no debt, we think this is not reflected in the group''s valuation, while the December 12 CMD could showcase upside to midterm margin expectations. O/P.