What happened?
We have received the latest NABCA Spirits industry data, which measures on and off-trade Spirits sales in 17 control states in the US. Control jurisdictions represent c.25% of the US Spirits market. Our key takeaways for the month of March 2025 are below. Please let us know if you would like to see out NABCA database.
BNPP Exane View:
Industry perspective: control states
On a reported basis, spirits industry volumes declined by -4.0% in the control states in March. On a selling day adjusted basis, we estimate March spirits industry volumes in the control states declined by -3.7%. This marks a material deterioration in sequential trend (Feb was -2.4%). While this is likely partly explained by unfavourable Easter timing (Easter fell on 31 March 2024 vs 20 April 2025), we note that the comp. is not particularly challenging (Mar''24 vols -2.3%, Feb''24 vols -1.4%). The -3.7% decline in the month leaves Q1 industry vols (inc. Cocktails) at -2.1% (cf. Q4 +0.5%, Q3 -0.9%).
Excluding Cocktails (+29% in March), we estimate core spirits industry volumes declined -5.1% on a selling-day adjusted basis in the month, a sequential deceleration from -4.1% in February to leave Q1 at -3.6% (cf. Q4 -1.4%, Q3 -2.6%).
Note: Overall, we estimate there was a modest (-0.3%) negative selling day impact YOY across the control states in March.
We have not yet received the price / mix figures for March from NABCA.
Company perspective
Disclaimer: The company data is based upon reported volumes (incl. Cocktails) and this reflects calendar anomalies.
Disclaimer made, Diageo reported volumes declined by -8.3% in March. We note that Diageo''s Canadian Whisky volumes declined -18.9% (cf. category -10.5%) which was partly offset by continued strength in Tequila (+17.6% vs. category +3.4%). Diageo March...
