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30 Oct 2025
VMO2 3Q25 Results: EBITDA beat and sub losses improving - but clear signs of weakness in UK broadband
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VMO2 3Q25 Results: EBITDA beat and sub losses improving - but clear signs of weakness in UK broadband
Telefonica SA (TEF:MCE), 0 | LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC-A (LBTYA:NYSE), 0 | Liberty Global Ltd. Class A (LBTYA:NAS), 0
- Published:
30 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Mills Joshua JM -
Pages:
12 -
What happened?
*VMO2 has just released standalone results, with revenue -1.5% vs. LBTYA consensus and EBITDA +2.4%.
*Net add trends remain under pressure but improved relative to 2Q, with broadband declining -29k (vs. -51k last Q) and postpaid mobile declining -36k (vs. -74k last Q).
*Note that revenue includes GBP52 from Daisy this Q (2% of total revenue, unclear how much in cons already) and the EBITDA number includes a 2.1% tailwind from ''handset related insurance recovery'' (though this was ''substantially offset by a provision for legal matters which did not impact cash in the quarter''). Taking all this together, we see the results as a miss on revenue and small beat on EBITDA vs. consensus.
*FY25 guidance reiterated: revenue growth ex. handsets/nexfibre, EBITDA growth ex nexfibre, CAPEX GBP2.0-2.2 bn, Adjusted FCF of GBP350-400m. VMO2 note that they are reviewing the impact of the Daisy deal, which they expect to result in ~GBP135m incremental revenue but to have a ''broadly neutral'' impact on adj. EBITDA in 2025.
*B2C Mobile: MSR grew 0.4% (vs. +0.2% last Q) VMO2 note that the sub losses were mainly driven by weaker B2B which was offset by wholesale sub gains. Consumer sub base is ''stable''.
*B2C Fixed: Revenues declined -2.1% (vs. -0.9% last quarter), driven both by weaker sub numbers and ARPU reduction. Sub trends remained negative, but improved relative to last Q. We see all of this as evidence that the UK broadband market remains very challenging, with altnets becoming more aggressive - negative read-across for BT.
*B2B Fixed: Revenue increased by +35% as a result of the Daisy merger (vs. -8.2% last quarter) - we look for more detail on underlying trends during the call today.
*Adjusted EBITDA: increased 2.7% (vs. -0.4% last Q). On a guidance basis (ex nexfibre, Daisy etc) EBITDA grew +2.2% (vs. +1.1% last Q).
*Leverage: VMO2 leverage, including vendor financing etc, sits at 5.3x - above the mid-term guidance range of 4-5x.
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