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04 Nov 2021
Wait and see ahead of the CMD

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Wait and see ahead of the CMD
- Published:
04 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Palomo Manuel MP -
Pages:
10 -
Underlying operational performance remains weak, but in line with consensus
Reported EBITDA (EUR11.278bn -11.2%) came EUR1.35bn below the Ordinary EBITDA reported by Enel (EUR12.36bn -11.2%) because of EUR1.3bn costs for the energy transition and digitalization considered by Enel as non-ordinary. The Ordinary EBITDA performance was only positively supported by Italy (+1%) while the other main divisions, Spain (-9%), Europe and North Africa (-8%), Latam (-2%), North and Central America (-12%) saw negative performance.
Significant decline in NP as a result of the weak operational performance
Reported NP (EUR2.5bn, -14%) came c. EUR0.8bn lower than the Adjusted one (EUR3.289, -8% YoY) as a consequence of costs for energy transition and digitalization (-EUR0.9bn) and Covid costs (-EUR26m), partly offset by positive impact from net impairments (EUR0.16bn). Adjusted numbers came broadly in line with consensus.
Long-term guidance may be (too) challenging, although (arguably) largely priced in
FY21 guidance was reconfirmed (EUR18.7-19.3bn EBITDA, EUR5.4-5.6bn Net Profit) and is expected to be supported by the closing of Open Fiber deal (EUR1.7bn gains to be booked as recurring). The market debate, however, remains whether Enel will achieve the long-term targets or reset them in the forthcoming CMD. Our updated estimates for FY23 remain below guidance (-6.5% on EBITDA and -16% on NP)
TP upgraded on improved performance from subsidiaries - Upgrade to Neutral
We have rolled over the debt to 2022 and added one additional year of pipeline and removed the potential gas clawback impact in Spain (main booster of our estimates). We have also updated mark-to-market valuations on listed subsidiaries, the main driver for our TP upgrade to EUR7.0 (from EUR6.6). In spite of still-demanding multiples, the limited downside and the proximity of the CMD (potential positive catalyst on the 24th November) lead us to upgrade our recommendation to Neutral.