Strong but not special Erste''s prospective profitability is good (8.3% and 9.3% ROTE respectively in 2022e and 2023e), solvency is strong (FL CT1 ratio ranging between 13.9% and 14.2% over the forecast period) and asset quality deterioration is likely to remain contained. But these reassuring traits are already well reflected in the bank''s 13% P/E premium vs the sector in 2022e in our view. We downgraded Erste to Neutral just over a month ago on valuation grounds and our view has not changed post Q4. A possible interest rate hike in CZ looks already reflected in consensus estimates and the upside risk related to an earlier normalisation of cost of risk is not company specific. Consensus estimates are already consistent with the 2021 outlook Management guides for a low to mid-single digit lending growth and for flattish NII. Fee-income growth is expected to be a low single digit percentage and trading income should be higher. Cost growth should be below revenue growth and land at around the 2019 level. Cost of risk is confirmed at below 65bps. Our estimates are broadly unchanged with higher revenues and lower LLP offset by higher costs, a slightly higher tax rate and higher coupons on AT1 bonds (EUR148m in 2020). Asset quality deterioration is contained Due to proactive UTP classifications the gross NPE ratio increased from 2.4% to 2.7% q/q with a 4.3ppt decline in stage 3 coverage to 54.1%. Management guides for a 3-4% gross NPE ratio in 2021 and for a further decline in coverage. Only 2.9% of loans remain under moratoria and other forbearance measures vs 7.6% in Q3 20 and 10.9% in Q2 20. The post moratoria default rate is just 1% with the caveat that the moratoria expired only very recently in most countries. Dividend yield is on par with the sector average Erste will pay a EUR0.50 DPS in June and an additional EUR1 will be distributed if/when ECB restrictions are lifted. We model a small DPS increase over the forecast period...