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  • 04 Feb 2025

Well placed to sustain solid growth momentum in 2025


Publicis Groupe (PUB:EPA), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (PUB:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL

    • 14 pages


 

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Well placed to sustain solid growth momentum in 2025


Publicis Groupe (PUB:EPA), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (PUB:PAR), 0

  • Published: 04 Feb 2025
  • Author: Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL
  • Pages: 14
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Publicis Q4 / FY 24 results came in slightly above estimates thanks to stronger organic sales momentum (+6.3%) which came c.450bp above peers level (based on our estimates). Group guides for +4/+5% OSG and slight margin improvement in 2025 which is in line with consensus estimates. The release reinforces our view that Publicis is best positioned among the top agencies and the company should continue outperforming its peers on OSG (c.+5.0% OSG pa, +250bp vs peers) while maintaining some of the best margins and FCF conversion within the sector. We maintain our Outperform rating and increase our TP to EUR142 (from EUR137). Solid end to 2024 with Connected Media still driving the group''s growth momentum Publicis Q4 24 organic sales came above estimates at +6.3% (vs VA cons. +6.0%, Publicis cons. +5.7%). Connected Media (up HSD) continues to support growth while Intelligent Creativity was up MSD and Sapient was flat (vs LSD decline in Q3 24) on an organic basis. Adj. EBIT margin was in line YoY at 18%. Operating leverage was offset by reinvestment in talents and AI. Average net cash position was better than expected thanks to lower-than-expected WC outflow and MandA. FY 25 guidance as expected, we see upside potential Group guides for +4/+5% organic sales growth (vs cons. +4.5%), slight improvement in Adj. EBIT margin (vs cons. +10bp) and EUR1.9/2.0bn FCF. Group expects to spend EUR800/900m in MandA this year to reinforce capabilities in data, production, digital media and tech (Sapient). Considering underlying market trends, positive net new business effect (+2%), sustained growth of content production, last year MandA (Influential, Mars United Commerce) entry into organic sales calculation in H2 25, we think Publicis can deliver +5.5% OSG in 2025 and +10bp margin improvement. Adj. EPS largely unchanged with better FX impact offset by higher financial expenses We increase adj. EBIT by c.+1% on better FX and MandA but this is offset by higher financial...

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