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18 May 2022
What are you thinking?
SAP SE (SAP:ETR), 0 | Dassault Systemes SE (DSY:PAR), 0 | AMAZON COM (AMZN:NYSE), 0 | Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN:NAS), 0 | Microsoft Corporation (MSFT:NAS), 0 | Oracle Corporation (ORCL:NYS), 0 | ADOBE SYSTEMS (ADBE:NYSE), 0 | Adobe Inc. (ADBE:NAS), 0 | Intuit Inc. (INTU:NAS), 0 | ALPHABET INC-CL A (GOOGL:NYSE), 0 | Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NAS), 0 | salesforce.com (CRM:NYSE), 0 | Salesforce, Inc. (CRM:NYS), 0 | ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW:NYS), 0 | Workday, Inc. Class A (WDAY:NAS), 0 | Shopify, Inc. Class A (SHOP:NAS), 0 | Zoom Communications, Inc. Class A (ZM:NAS), 0 | Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW:NYS), 0 | Dassault Systemes SE (0HB4:LON), 0 | Intuitive Investments Group Plc (IIG:LON), 106 | Microsoft Corporation (0QYP:LON), 52,000 | Oracle Corporation (0R1Z:LON), 19,400 | ServiceNow, Inc. (0L5N:LON), 0 | Workday, Inc. Class A (0M18:LON), 0 | Zoom Communications, Inc. Shs A Unsponsored Brazilian Depositary Receipt Repr 0.04 Sh A (Z1OM34:BSP), 0
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What are you thinking?
SAP SE (SAP:ETR), 0 | Dassault Systemes SE (DSY:PAR), 0 | AMAZON COM (AMZN:NYSE), 0 | Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN:NAS), 0 | Microsoft Corporation (MSFT:NAS), 0 | Oracle Corporation (ORCL:NYS), 0 | ADOBE SYSTEMS (ADBE:NYSE), 0 | Adobe Inc. (ADBE:NAS), 0 | Intuit Inc. (INTU:NAS), 0 | ALPHABET INC-CL A (GOOGL:NYSE), 0 | Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NAS), 0 | salesforce.com (CRM:NYSE), 0 | Salesforce, Inc. (CRM:NYS), 0 | ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW:NYS), 0 | Workday, Inc. Class A (WDAY:NAS), 0 | Shopify, Inc. Class A (SHOP:NAS), 0 | Zoom Communications, Inc. Class A (ZM:NAS), 0 | Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW:NYS), 0 | Dassault Systemes SE (0HB4:LON), 0 | Intuitive Investments Group Plc (IIG:LON), 106 | Microsoft Corporation (0QYP:LON), 52,000 | Oracle Corporation (0R1Z:LON), 19,400 | ServiceNow, Inc. (0L5N:LON), 0 | Workday, Inc. Class A (0M18:LON), 0 | Zoom Communications, Inc. Shs A Unsponsored Brazilian Depositary Receipt Repr 0.04 Sh A (Z1OM34:BSP), 0
- Published:
18 May 2022 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC | Lu Louis LL -
Pages:
3 -
In this series, we provide feedback on what investors are asking us and telling us. We have spent most of the past 7 weeks meeting in person with investors globally to discuss the Software sector, and our recent research. Below are some thoughts on what ''you'' are thinking.
Enterprise resilient, but Europe / SME / Consumer exposure / COVID winners out of favour
Q1 results showed surprising resilience in European enterprise IT demand despite the Ukraine War creating geopolitical uncertainty in March. With digital transformation projects powering ahead, investors believe enterprise IT demand is now safe until the end of the year. But high inflation is creating concerns around consumer and SME spending as recession fears mount in Europe. When combined with still tough COVID / stimulus comps, and consumers opting to return to in person shopping and experiences, SME and Consumer-facing digital technologies are out of favour.
Lots of shopping lists, not much shopping
One of the questions we get most is: when will it be the time to buy ''fallen angels'' like Shopify? Will easier H2 comps be enough, especially if inflation eases at the same time to free up some consumer spend? It may be, unless higher interest rates help cause a recession, putting further downward pressure on demand and multiples. In the hope that recession will be avoided, and H2 will see pressures ease, investors are putting together their shopping lists; identifying companies they would like to own (competitive positioning, growth runway, margin and return potential) but are not yet comfortable to go shopping as market volatility can quickly punish new positions.
No capitulation yet (even ARKK is still seeing inflows!)
We believe the drawdown in most tech stocks mainly reflects the repricing of growth in a higher rate environment, and not a more severe longer lasting recession. While tech markets have been weak, and value has outperformed unprofitable growth, we don''t yet sense...