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09 Nov 2023
What''s the value of the aged inventories?
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What''s the value of the aged inventories?
- Published:
09 Nov 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
25 -
What''s the value of Remy Cointreau''s aged inventories?
We upgraded Remy Cointreau to Outperform in August (see 5 questions and 1 answer) on the basis that, while visibility on US cognac demand trends was low, we saw good risk-reward in the shares. Regrettably, with the benefit of hindsight, the timing of our upgrade was poor. The recent further decline in the share price has prompted one question more than any other from investors in recent weeks: ''What''s the value of Remy Cointreau''s aged inventories?''
An argument we are not great fans of, but one that matters nevertheless
In truth we are not great fans of the argument that estimating the value of Remy Cointreau''s aged inventories is a good basis for valuing the business. For, in reality, if we are wrong and there is a structural demand issue for high-end cognac, Remy''s aged inventories may be worth relatively little. Nevertheless, recent investor questions highlight that it is a metric that matters to the market.
Based on the value of its ageing stock, we derive a valuation range of EUR106-119/share
In the report we explore three approaches to calculating an estimated market value for Remy Cointreau''s ageing inventories. We derive valuations based on: 1) realisable value based on an estimated gross margin; 2) realisable value based on estimated Cognac liquid cost; 3) based on an scenario whereby the company winds down its remaining Cognac liquid in a hypothetical c.8-year DCF. Based on these approaches, we derive a valuation range of EUR106-119/share (at the end of FY24e).
Conclusion: we believe we could be nearing a valuation trough
We are not great fans of valuing Remy Cointreau based on its aged inventories. However, based upon our analysis and the number of questions we are receiving on inventory value, we would suggest that we are close to a valuation trough.