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  • 20 Feb 2023

Working capital begins to normalise


Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Mounsey Jonathan MJ

    • 9 pages


 

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Working capital begins to normalise


Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0

  • Published: 20 Feb 2023
  • Author: Mounsey Jonathan MJ
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


A good end to 2022 Legrand delivered a strong Q4 print. Group sales came in 4% ahead, with organic sales growth at 8.5%, 350bps ahead of Consensus. Final quarter adjusted EBIT came in 15.6% ahead; the Group''s margin was 21.1%, 210bps ahead of the Street. For the first time ever, all three regions simultaneously printed a margin of over 20%. Fourth quarter pricing was 10%, whilst raw material inflation was 4%, leading to a favourable price/cost spread in the quarter. As is customary, the CEO was clear that pricing will increase in FY23e but highlighted that total pricing could be lower than the theoretical carryover effect after the impact of rebates and other pricing actions is taken into consideration. Given 10% price contribution to growth, volumes were down c. 1.5% YoY in Q4. Sequentially, Europe was immaterially up whilst the US showed more tangible improvement from Q3 on easing supply chain constraints and lower impact of China disruption. Group Q4 FCF was EUR419mn a 30% beat relative to Consensus, driven by a cash inflow from working capital. Guidance reassures; working capital coming back under control Legrand guides to FY23e sales growth at constant exchange rates of between +2% and +6%, including a scope of consolidation effect of around +3% and prior to the exit from the Group''s Russian assets. Implicitly Legrand is guiding to organic sales growth of -1% to 3%. Pre-results Consensus stood at -0.7%. The Company looks for an adjusted operating margin before acquisitions of around 20% of sales. The pre-results Consensus FY23e all in (with MandA) margin was 19.7%. Considering a likely MandA dilution impact of c. 0.3%, we think this guidance implied small underlying upgrades to the Street''s numbers. During the call the CFO confirmed that plans are underway to bring Legrand''s inventory/sales ratio down from its Q3''22 high of 19% back towards its historical average of 13% to 14%. The move to 16% in Q4 was material but the pace will now...

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