First things first: revisiting our numbers following Russian invasion of Ukraine The outbreak of the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe stopped agencies'' share prices in their tracks after a strong Q4 and upbeat 22e guidance. Understandably, cyclical fears are back. We revise our estimates for our ad holdco coverage to reflect a lower-growth environment. While visibility remains weak, ad agencies could show good resilience, we think. Do not underestimate agencies'' ability to protect earnings We believe that the agencies'' geographic mix and sizeable global mandates will ease the pressure from a Europe-centred conflict. We examine a previous regional crisis to assess the potential impact of organic growth headwinds. In the context of rising inflation and supply constraints, our analysis suggests that agency clients are confident in their ability to mitigate the risks. Better placed cyclically and structurally than feared As cyclical fears resurface, we believe agency momentum is likely to be more resilient than one might expect, thanks to a strong AandP expenses outlook coupled with improved top-line visibility for agencies. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that while structural pressures persist there are early signs of their deceleration - for the first time since 2017. Forecast changes We reduce our 2022/23e EPS by 4%/2% for Publicis and by 3%/1% for WPP, as we cut our European organic growth expectations by half and forecast a slightly lower operating leverage in FY22e. We revise our DCF-based target prices to EUR71 for Publicis, suggesting 25% upside, and to GBp1,070 for WPP, close to the current share price. Reiterate our preference for Publicis Groupe (+) to WPP (=) We expect Publicis Groupe to deliver a faster revenue transition story. With valuation still relatively inexpensive, we see a more favourable risk/reward and reiterate our Outperform stance. On WPP, we keep our Neutral rating. Our TPs imply 10.4x EV/EBIT ''23e...