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  • 18 Feb 2025

Lyft 4Q24: strong quarter passed, seasonally weak ahead


Lyft Inc (LYFT:NYSE), 0 | Lyft, Inc. Class A (LYFT:NAS), 0

  • Hypothesis Research
    • Marina Alekseenkova

    • 6 pages


 

 Lyft reported another strong quarter, achieving operating profitability in 4Q24. Gross Bookings grew 14.9% YoY to $4,279mn, driven by a 10.3% increase in active riders to 24.7mn. The platform facilitated 219mn rides, up 14.5% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA reached $113mn, exceeding the guidance range of $100-105mn. Revenue per active rider increased by 14.8% YoY, with total quarterly revenue rising 26.6% YoY to $1,550mn. The cost of revenue increased 17.6% YoY to $874.6mn, while Sales and Marketing (S&M) expenses doubled to $251mn. However, the company reduced G&A costs by 10.5% YoY to $195mn, resulting in total costs and expenses rising 18.5% YoY to $1,522mn, a rate lower than revenue growth (26.6%). Operating costs as a percentage of revenue decreased across all expense categories except for S&M, which rose from 14.2% in 3Q to 12.6% of revenue in 4Q. For the first time, Lyft reported a quarterly operating profit of $27.9mn in 4Q24 compared to a $60.2mn operating loss a year ago. Net income reached $61.6mn, a significant improvement from a net loss of $26.3mn a year ago. The company recorded its highest level of driver hours in 4Q. For FY2024, total driver earnings neared $9bn, the highest in Lyft’s history. Additionally, average pick-up times improved by one minute YoY. In 2024, Lyft significantly reduced prime-time and introduced various innovations for both drivers and riders, enhancing driver satisfaction and achieving the highest driver frequency. According to Lyft, drivers’ preferences for its platform was higher than for its largest competitor. Strong market pricing, lower prime time, and increased engagement among drivers and riders contributed to Lyft’s robust FY2024 results. Gross Bookings rose 17% YoY to $16.1bn, while revenue increased 31% YoY to $5.8nb. Adjusted EBITDA reached $382.4mn compared to $222.4mn in 2023. Stock-based compensation was $331mn in 2024, compared to $485mn in 2023. Lyft’s BoD approved a $500 share buyback program to offset the dilution from stock-based compensation. The company plans to repay its convertible notes due in May 2025 using cash on the balance sheet.  Lyft is collaborating with Mobileye and Japanese trading company Marubeni to introduce autonomous vehicles on its platform. The robotaxis fleet, powered by Intel-owned Mobileye’s technology, is expected to launch in Dallas in 2026. Lyft will maintain an asset-light approach, with Marubeni – one of the largest global fleet owners - owning and managing the vehicles. Lyft’s plans to expand in autonomous ride-hailing rather soon are partially driven by the recent successful deployment of Waymo’s AVs by its largest competitors. The company remains committed to exploring other partnerships in the future.  In 1Q25, Lyft forecasts Gross Bookings between $4.05bn and $4.20bn, up 10-14% YoY, and expects Adjusted EBITDA in the range between $90-95mn, with 2.2-2.3% Adj EBITDA margin relative to Gross Bookings. Active rider growth is projected to continue throughout 2025. However, the 1Q is typically a seasonally weaker quarter due to shorter, more localized rides post-holiday season, and weather conditions that discourage staying outside. According to Lyft, lower pricing dynamics, which began in late 4Q24, have persisted into 1Q25. The termination of Lyft’s partnership with Delta on April 7, 2025, is expected to negatively impact rides and gross bookings by 1-2p.p. starting in 2Q25. Lyft aims to enhance service levels for riders and improve driver rewards through new partnerships. The company’s collaboration with DoorDash has already yielded strong results, with about 8mn DoorDash rides facilitated by Lyft recently. Lyft has demonstrated good cost control, particularly in insurance-related costs, and reduced its stock-based compensation. We have revised our 12-month DCF-based target price to $21.3 from $20.6 per share and maintain our Buy rating for the stock.

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Lyft 4Q24: strong quarter passed, seasonally weak ahead


Lyft Inc (LYFT:NYSE), 0 | Lyft, Inc. Class A (LYFT:NAS), 0

  • Published: 18 Feb 2025
  • Author: Marina Alekseenkova
  • Pages: 6
  • Hypothesis Research


 Lyft reported another strong quarter, achieving operating profitability in 4Q24. Gross Bookings grew 14.9% YoY to $4,279mn, driven by a 10.3% increase in active riders to 24.7mn. The platform facilitated 219mn rides, up 14.5% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA reached $113mn, exceeding the guidance range of $100-105mn. Revenue per active rider increased by 14.8% YoY, with total quarterly revenue rising 26.6% YoY to $1,550mn. The cost of revenue increased 17.6% YoY to $874.6mn, while Sales and Marketing (S&M) expenses doubled to $251mn. However, the company reduced G&A costs by 10.5% YoY to $195mn, resulting in total costs and expenses rising 18.5% YoY to $1,522mn, a rate lower than revenue growth (26.6%). Operating costs as a percentage of revenue decreased across all expense categories except for S&M, which rose from 14.2% in 3Q to 12.6% of revenue in 4Q. For the first time, Lyft reported a quarterly operating profit of $27.9mn in 4Q24 compared to a $60.2mn operating loss a year ago. Net income reached $61.6mn, a significant improvement from a net loss of $26.3mn a year ago. The company recorded its highest level of driver hours in 4Q. For FY2024, total driver earnings neared $9bn, the highest in Lyft’s history. Additionally, average pick-up times improved by one minute YoY. In 2024, Lyft significantly reduced prime-time and introduced various innovations for both drivers and riders, enhancing driver satisfaction and achieving the highest driver frequency. According to Lyft, drivers’ preferences for its platform was higher than for its largest competitor. Strong market pricing, lower prime time, and increased engagement among drivers and riders contributed to Lyft’s robust FY2024 results. Gross Bookings rose 17% YoY to $16.1bn, while revenue increased 31% YoY to $5.8nb. Adjusted EBITDA reached $382.4mn compared to $222.4mn in 2023. Stock-based compensation was $331mn in 2024, compared to $485mn in 2023. Lyft’s BoD approved a $500 share buyback program to offset the dilution from stock-based compensation. The company plans to repay its convertible notes due in May 2025 using cash on the balance sheet.  Lyft is collaborating with Mobileye and Japanese trading company Marubeni to introduce autonomous vehicles on its platform. The robotaxis fleet, powered by Intel-owned Mobileye’s technology, is expected to launch in Dallas in 2026. Lyft will maintain an asset-light approach, with Marubeni – one of the largest global fleet owners - owning and managing the vehicles. Lyft’s plans to expand in autonomous ride-hailing rather soon are partially driven by the recent successful deployment of Waymo’s AVs by its largest competitors. The company remains committed to exploring other partnerships in the future.  In 1Q25, Lyft forecasts Gross Bookings between $4.05bn and $4.20bn, up 10-14% YoY, and expects Adjusted EBITDA in the range between $90-95mn, with 2.2-2.3% Adj EBITDA margin relative to Gross Bookings. Active rider growth is projected to continue throughout 2025. However, the 1Q is typically a seasonally weaker quarter due to shorter, more localized rides post-holiday season, and weather conditions that discourage staying outside. According to Lyft, lower pricing dynamics, which began in late 4Q24, have persisted into 1Q25. The termination of Lyft’s partnership with Delta on April 7, 2025, is expected to negatively impact rides and gross bookings by 1-2p.p. starting in 2Q25. Lyft aims to enhance service levels for riders and improve driver rewards through new partnerships. The company’s collaboration with DoorDash has already yielded strong results, with about 8mn DoorDash rides facilitated by Lyft recently. Lyft has demonstrated good cost control, particularly in insurance-related costs, and reduced its stock-based compensation. We have revised our 12-month DCF-based target price to $21.3 from $20.6 per share and maintain our Buy rating for the stock.

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