 The Mosaic Company delivered revenue of $3,548mn in 3Q23, down 34% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA reached $594mn, down 65% YoY in 3Q23, compared to $744mn in 2Q23 and $777mn in 1Q23. Mosaic reports lower fertiliser prices in 3Q amidst de-stocking and under-fertilisation. Brazilian and Indian inventory levels of potash and phosphates are low, promising stronger future demand for fertilisers. Low fertiliser consumption has already resulted in disappointing yields, according to Mosaic, supporting the future fertiliser market prospects. Lower Ukrainian grain production, higher Chinese imports of agriculture products, and growth of biodiesel production in the US (25% of the US soybean consumption) are supportive of fertiliser market. Fertiliser supply is still constrained, in particular potash and phosphate exports from the CIS. Mosaic reported $986mn revenue from the phosphates segment, down 37% YoY, and Adj EBITDA of $201mn, down 58% YoY on the back of a 38% correction of the phosphate selling price. The potash segment revenue was down 50% YoY to $720mn and Adj EBITDA was down 69% YoY to $267mn following a 51% decline in potash price despite 4% higher sales volumes. Mosaic Fertilizantes revenue reached $1,734mn, down 34% with gross margin per ton at $35/t, down 72% YoY in 3Q. The Adj EBITDA in Brazil was down 57% YoY to $147mn, driven by a 39% average realised price correction. Sales of products reached 3.06mt, up 8% YoY in 3Q following the end of de-stocking. The company expects the Brazilian demand for fertilisers to reach 43-44mt in 2023. Mosaic expects strong potash demand in North America and plans to re-start Colonsay mine. Potash volumes may reach 2.4-2.6mt in 4Q23 with the expected price at the mine at $235-260/t. Mosaic expects global potash supply at 64-65mt in 2023. Colonsay will help to meet the global demand of 68-72mt in 2024, when other extra volumes may also come from CIS producers (1mt from Belaruskali, 1mt from Uralkali, and 0.7mt from EuroChem’s VolgaKaliy and others). The phosphate market may grow by 2-3mt in 2024 with some ramp-up from Marocco, the Middle East, and Russian PhosAgro. Mosaic sees some room for expansion as well. Mosaic plans to supply 1.6-1.8mt of phosphates in 4Q23 at the price of $530-580/t at the plant. The phosphate market looks balanced with Chinese volumes of phosphate exports lower by 3-4mt in 2023 at 7-8mt compared to 11.4mt exports recorded in 2021. The company saw Brazilian high-cost inventory de-stocking in 1H23, which resulted in a better distribution margin in 3Q at $30-40/t. The company expects a $40-50/t distribution margin in 4Q. The capex will likely reach $1.3-1.4bn in FY23 and will be down by $200mn in 2024. Mosaic returned $900mn to shareholders via buybacks and dividend distribution. For 3Q23, Mosaic reported $146mn operating earnings and a net loss of $4mn. Mosaic reports $2.7bn debt and $591mn cash as of 30/09/2023. Interest expense was to $17.4mn in 3Q23 compared to $30.6mn in 3Q22. Mosaic recorded an FX loss of $97mn in 3Q. The buyback resulted in the weighted average number of shares reduced from 347.7mn in 3Q22 to 331.5mn in 3Q23.  We adjust our forecasts, as the demand outlook is robust. We expect stable demand and a slight increase in fertilizer prices in 4Q and going forward after the destocking and under-fertilisation period. The growing demand for grain and oil seeds is sustaining in the long term. Mosaic looks strong with its Brazilian distribution and strong North American presence. Mosaic announced that Bruce Bodine, SVP - North America, to succeed as CEO Mr. O'Rourke, who plans to retire on 1/1/24. Strategically, Mosaic plans to focus on non-commodity product sales, such as micro essentials, and develop its lithium-phosphate battery market exposure. That may drive the phosphate selling price. A higher potash sales forecast is positive for the company’s valuation. The company targets $150 mn annual savings in SG&A and segment results. We maintain our Hold rating and 12-month target price at $41.5 per share.