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28 Feb 2022
AB InBev : Confident outlook - Buy

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AB InBev : Confident outlook - Buy
- Published:
28 Feb 2022 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
6 -
Management appear to be confident about the year so far. Worries about a soft start in the US (32% of group EBITDA) were downplayed as these were mainly attributed to temporary disruptions (i.e. cold weather, Omicron impact). The US portfolio is more exposed to higher growth segments than it has been historically, and the on-trade channel is growing strongly. The recent Superbowl event exceeded expectations.
The company’s rapid shift to digital is delivering myriad benefits. The main benefit is gaining better knowledge about the behaviour patterns of its customers and consumers. We believe this can deliver stronger top-line performance for the group over the medium-term.
Brazil is currently under-earning after three years of punishing inflation and taxes, during which EBITDA margins have collapsed by 1,300bps and absolute EBITDA in USD terms has shrunk by 33%. When inflation eventually abates, there should be significant operating leverage in the business, and management confirmed there is no structural reason why margins there cannot return to previous levels over time.
Turning to the valuation, the implied FY22E PE on the business excluding Ambev (22% of ABI market cap, currently on 19.7x) and Budweiser Brewing Co APAC (28% of ABI market cap, currently on 36.6x) is just 10.2x. Considering that the ‘rest of ABI’ includes strong positions in the US (mature but high margin), Colombia, Mexico, South Africa, and Europe, this valuation appears unusually low for a Beer company. Our DCF fair value is over €88/sh. We stick with our unchanged €70/sh TP, which implies a FY22E PE of 23.5x (19.5x on the ‘rest of ABI’) and EV/EBITDA of 12.2x. We assume a flat DPS in € terms in 2022E, but believe it could begin to rebuild from 2023E.