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03 Aug 2020
AB InBev : Green shoots - Buy

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AB InBev : Green shoots - Buy
- Published:
03 Aug 2020 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
6 -
Our FY20E adj. EBITDA is increased just 1% following the Q2 results, but various below the line items lead our underlying diluted EPS to rise 25%. We expect June was probably flattered by some replenishment orders as the on-trade re-opened in many markets; we continue to assume a very gradual recovery – with revenue reaching 2019 levels only in FY22E.
ABI’s brand portfolio has performed relatively well during the crisis, with share gains in Mexico, Brazil, China and across most markets in Europe. In the US, market share was flat after many years of share losses.
The crisis has prompted the company to become more agile, a trait many have feared it lacked after significant M&A. Performance has particularly improved in the area of digital, and especially e-commerce, where consumers are swiftly embracing the convenience of ordering Beer online; more investment will be spent on this area going forward. In Mexico, ABI was able to swiftly roll out a low ABV product classed as food to address the ban on alcohol sales.
Net debt/EBITDA was 4.86x at the H1 stage, though cash flow (excluding M&A activity) is normally skewed to H2. Management is focused on debt pay-down and used some of the proceeds from the sale of Australia to reduce its borrowings; the target of 2x net debt/EBITDA remains unchanged. The business now has enough cash on hand to meet its maturing debt obligations through 2024.
We keep our target price unchanged at €60. This implies a FY21E PE of 22.2x, in-line with the valuation of its nearest peer, Heineken (NR). ABI is the largest brewer in the world with an unparalleled emerging market footprint; its current good momentum and market share gains support a rating at least in-line with its peers. The DCF fair value using our estimates is currently €71.65. Buy.