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04 Nov 2021
AB InBev : Master of its own destiny - Buy

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AB InBev : Master of its own destiny - Buy
- Published:
04 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
6 -
ABI grew volumes by 3.4% in Q3 against the toughest quarterly comp of the year. Even so, the US and the Asia Pacific region were held back by one-offs; however, momentum in the US has recently improved, according to management. They confirmed that the business is not suffering from any significant supply chain challenges.
The company now has better control over its own growth trajectory, thanks to innovations and digital initiatives. Innovations have contributed 10% of the group’s revenue year to date. Digital continues to be hugely successful for ABI. The B2B BEES platform now has 2.1m monthly average users, implying a penetration rate amongst ABI’s global customers of 35% – and in markets where the product was launched earlier, the platform now accounts for 8590% of net revenue. DTC delivered over $1bn of net revenue in the 9M period, with e-commerce growing over 90% y-o-y. The company now has beer courier services in 10 markets outside of Brazil, where the concept originated. The company’s ability to grasp new growth opportunities is one of the reasons we chose ABI as a top pick for 2021.
Our model is updated for the strong Q3, latest FX rates and share price movements. Our EBITDA estimate for FY21E rises by 1%, but a much larger minority interest drag means our underlying basic EPS falls 2% to $2.98. This change has no impact on our investment view, which remains positive.
The valuation is attractive, with the shares trading at a 13% discount to the 10-year average EV/EBITDA, and a 32% discount to the pre-SAB peak EV/EBITDA valuation. Management confirmed that the company does not necessarily need to meet the 2x net debt/EBITDA objective before it would consider raising the dividend again.