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11 May 2021
AB InBev : Stronger than ever - Buy

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AB InBev : Stronger than ever - Buy
- Published:
11 May 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
6 -
Following the excellent performance in Q1 and incorporating newly clarified guidance (of 8-12% organic EBITDA growth), we upgrade our FY21E EBITDA by 1.5%. Various below-the-line items (interest, tax, minorities) lead to an underlying EPS cut of 8%, though this is practically irrelevant as investors usually focus exclusively on top-line and EBITDA, given the highly variable nature of the other elements of ABI’s P&L. We note management’s comment that the group could return to previous margin levels in due course, with the current cost inflation being recovered with local pricing decisions.
The departure of the longstanding CEO Brito signifies that the Board is serious about evolving the narrative as the share price has languished in recent years. The new CEO Michel Doukeris has been with ABI for 25 years, but is seen as a brand builder and digital-savvy – two things Brito, for all his many skills, was not particularly known for. Doukeris has a good track record in China, the US, Brazil and South Korea.
ABI was a relative outperformer during Q1, helped by its BEES B2B digital platform. The company took share in the value and core price segments. In the US and Brazil, the #1 and #2 markets, respectively, volumes are now back above pre-crisis levels and healthy growth trends continue. China is also back above the pre-crisis level. The premium price segment is now over 30% of group revenue and grew sales by 28% in Q1. ABI’s Global Brands (Budweiser, Corona, Stella Artois) all grew double digits y-o-y and grew vs. the 2019 level.
Beyond Beer still represents a major growth opportunity with the category growing at a 45% sales CAGR to 2024. ABI is rolling out Mike’s Hard Lemonade to more than 20 countries by the end of 2021. The recent introduction of Michelob Ultra hard seltzer in Mexico has been very successful.