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09 Aug 2023
AB InBev : The benefit of diversification - Buy

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AB InBev : The benefit of diversification - Buy
- Published:
09 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
6 -
Consumer demand for ABI’s brands has remained strong in Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, South Africa and China. ABI also outperformed a soft beer market in Europe during Q2. This is evidence of the company’s strong portfolio of brands as well as good execution. In the US, ABI lost market share as a result of the consumer backlash against Bud Light, but management pointed out that the business held its new lower level of market share steady over May and June, which suggests the worst of the backlash is behind them.
The premiumisation trend continues to be strong in nearly every market with group revenue/hl growth of 9.0% in Q2 (and 10.6% in H1). The above core portfolio grew revenue by over 10% in Q2, which is c. 300bps faster than the ABI group average. The global brands (Budweiser, Corona, Stella Artois) grew revenue by 18.4% outside their home markets in Q2. This bodes well for ABI’s growth algorithm and for its margins.
Net debt/EBITDA was 3.7x at the end of June 2023, a slight uptick from the December 2022 level, but this reflects normal working capital seasonality (plus some capex phasing) and is expected to come down again in H2. We model 2.8x by the end of FY23E and assume a FY dividend of €1.00/share.
We cut our underlying basic EPS by 7% in FY23E to $3.07 (Bloomberg consensus $3.05) and by 3% in FY24E to $3.70 (Bloomberg consensus $ 3.57). Most of this is due to higher finance expense with c. 2% of the downgrade attributable to less ambitious organic growth assumptions (previously we were slightly ahead of guidance). Our €70 TP is unchanged and implies 22.0x FY23E PE. This is at the upper end of the FY1 PE range over the last 5 years but is in-line with the last 10-year average FY1 PE. As ABI’s results demonstrate the attractiveness of its diversified footprint we think it can regain its former rating.