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07 Jul 2020
AB InBev : Updating estimates & Q2 preview - Buy

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AB InBev : Updating estimates & Q2 preview - Buy
- Published:
07 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
6 -
For Q2, we expect organic volumes -26.2%, organic sales -25.6% and organic EBITDA -37.1%. Despite significant cuts to SG&A (-23% y-o-y), there will still be operating de-leverage on lower volumes that cannot be offset in such a short time period. Guidance has been withdrawn, and with significant volume moves across ABI’s various markets, we expect a wider than normal consensus range going into the quarter. Most of the focus will be on any comments about trading during Q3 that management can provide on the day.
Our Q2 2020E “underlying EPS” (which excludes one-offs & mark to market gains/losses) is now $0.09, while our “normalized EPS” (which excludes one-offs, but includes mark to market gains/losses) is $0.17 (both are down roughly 90% y-o-y). For FY20E, our “underlying EPS” is $2.51 (-31.1% y-o-y) and our “normalized EPS” is $1.90 (-53.9% y-o-y).
On the positive side, FX and mark to market on hedges have moved in the right direction. If the shares continue to close the gap to peers and the wider market, there will be further EPS upgrades on the mark to market of hedges linked to the share price.
ABI has underperformed its global brewing peers YTD, as concerns about the high leverage against a backdrop of falling demand grew. However, we are now entering a period of re-opening across most of its markets and performance should begin to improve from Q3. The sale of Australia and the dividend cut have helped free up some extra flexibility on the balance sheet and outstanding debt is already being tendered with the proceeds. While the company is not out of the woods yet, and net debt/EBITDA may still rise this year on account of falling EBITDA, we have confidence that ABI will emerge from the crisis with its brands and operations relatively unscathed.