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20 Jun 2023
Aerospace & Defence: Paris Air Show feedback from day 1 - Healthy demand
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON), 1,687 | Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON), 476 | Cohort plc (CHRT:LON), 989 | Melrose Industries PLC (MRO:LON), 559 | Porvair plc (PRV:LON), 786
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Aerospace & Defence: Paris Air Show feedback from day 1 - Healthy demand
BAE Systems plc (BA:LON), 1,687 | Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LON), 476 | Cohort plc (CHRT:LON), 989 | Melrose Industries PLC (MRO:LON), 559 | Porvair plc (PRV:LON), 786
- Published:
20 Jun 2023 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Saul Larthe -
Pages:
5 -
Civil Demand:
Everyone with whom we spoke was upbeat on demand, while frustrated by supply chain constraints. The trade press are expecting a strong week for orders; c.3,000 compared to the combined backlog of Airbus and Boeing of c.12,000.
Airbus landed a record order from IndiGo for 500 aircraft and Flynas ordering 30 narrowbody aircraft. News sources also flagged Airbus in negotiation with Viva Aerobus for 100+ narrowbody aircraft.
In the past week, both Airbus and Boeing have raised demand forecasts for new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years.
MTU Aero Engines (N/R): Raised guidance for its earnings forecasts to more than €800m, representing a y-o-y increase in margin compared to previous guidance of stable margins (12.3% in FY22). Revenue guidance remains unchanged at between €6.1bn to €6.3bn.
Civil Supply:
Long supply chains continue to experience constraints that are holding back deliveries.
On the ground, senior management are all focused on meeting underperforming suppliers and encouraging them to ramp up deliveries.
There is a dearth of engineering talent. This is likely to persist even after material shortages have dissipated.
Defence:
The Defence industry made a more prominent showing compared to prior years.
The static display of loitering munitions and UAVs was understandably larger, with budgets increasing across the European continent and the threat environment moving rapidly.
This resonates with our well attended visit to BAE System’s (BA.L, BUY, 1015p TP) site in Ornskoldvik last week, where output is ramping up threefold over the next three years. A clear message was how customers now want more and longer-term supply agreements, providing improved sales visibility.
This is also consistent with the message from Chemring (CHG.L, BUY, 430p TP) at H1 results two weeks ago.