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30 Mar 2020
Chesnara : Capital strength and unbroken dividend growth - Buy

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Chesnara : Capital strength and unbroken dividend growth - Buy
- Published:
30 Mar 2020 -
Author:
Ben Cohen -
Pages:
6 -
Strong solvency key in the update. Having scheduled full year results for March 31st, Chesnara has published an update a day early, postponing the full release until April 15th. The December 31st solvency cover ratio of 155% was very slightly behind our 158% forecast, but we were very encouraged by the increase in the ratio to 164% as of March 20th. The improvement was due primarily to the benefit from the symmetric adjustment, which has reduced required capital as equities have fallen, but other factors have also contributed (gains on bonds in Sweden, volatility adjustment in Holland). Economic value has fallen by c.£100m since year-end to £570m, broadly consistent with given sensitivities, equal to c.380p per share. Own funds have not been disclosed.
Strong solvency and cash allows dividend growth. As of March 20th, surplus value above required capital had reduced only from £211m at year-end to £193m versus £208m at H119, with parent cash of £73.5m. The combination of strong solvency, even after market volatility, and central cash covering over two years’ worth of dividends, gives the visibility for an unchanged dividend decision of 3% growth, in-line with our published forecast.
Forecasts under review pending more detailed disclosure. We had not updated forecasts for market movements year-to-date, such that there will be reductions to Own funds estimates, if markets do not recover. The company has also cautioned that new business activity in Holland and Sweden has seen some small impact from the current environment, while noting capital required to support new business will also be reduced. We will update after April 15th.
Merits of Chesnara’s strategy highlighted. Back book cash generation, supported by M&A, and capital light new business, provide a solid basis for dividend growth, even in uncertain times, with a superior track record to peers.