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15 Apr 2020
Chesnara : Increased visibility on future dividends - Buy

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Chesnara : Increased visibility on future dividends - Buy
- Published:
15 Apr 2020 -
Author:
Ben Cohen -
Pages:
7 -
Key pillars of solvency resilience and dividend progression already announced. Chesnara disclosed the improvement in the FY19 solvency II ratio from 155% to 163% as of March 20th as the key numbers in its trading statement on March 30th. It also then said the final dividend would be raised by 3%, in-line with its long-term track record. It had estimated a decline in Economic Capital of c.£100m, which improved to a £90m decline as of March 31st, with the solvency II ratio estimate unchanged.
Economic value likely to move; dividend paying capability more predictable. While the present value of future profits is likely to move in volatile equity, bond and currency markets, strong starting cash and underlying cash generation gives greater visibility to dividends. We would point to updated disclosure on opening and closing cash, with this year’s coming shareholder dividend more than covered by dividends expected only from CA and Waard books, which de-risks if payments from Scildon and Movestic were to be barred by local regulators.
Details on cash generation and new business. IFRS profits benefited in 2019 from narrowing credit spreads and higher equity markets, while solvency and cash generation were negatively impacted by increased capital requirements. The sharp fall in equity markets in Q1 has benefited solvency. New business value improved in Holland in 2019, helped by cost saves, while Sweden’s declined, due to fee pressure, with profit improvement a focus.
Attractions of a steadily rising dividend in volatile, politicised markets. Cancelled dividends elsewhere, and further disclosure on cash coverage of next year’s dividend at Chesnara, underline the investment case, in our view, and the attractiveness of a starting 7% dividend yield.