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  • 31 Mar 2022

Chesnara : Positioning for growth after solid FY - Buy


Aviva plc (AV:LON), 610 | Chesnara Plc (CSN:LON), 285 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 634

  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Cohen

    • 9 pages


 

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Chesnara : Positioning for growth after solid FY - Buy


Aviva plc (AV:LON), 610 | Chesnara Plc (CSN:LON), 285 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 634

  • Published: 31 Mar 2022
  • Author: Ben Cohen
  • Pages: 9
  • Investec Bank


Own Funds per share of 372p was 4p (1%) light of our forecast, and down 10p on H1. H2 was impacted, as expected, by symmetric adjustment from rising equity markets, albeit less than in H1, with a small (£8m) impact from inflation, partly offset by £3.5m reinsurance benefit. The company’s preferred measure, ECV, declined by 1% on H1 to 416p per share. Solvency II coverage ratio was 152% versus 153% at H1, and our 153% forecast. Pro-forma for recent deals and debt issuance, the coverage ratio is 182%, with target range still 140-160%. The lower symmetric adjustment headwind was also the key driver of the H2 improvement on H1 in group cash generation from £5m to £15m, with FX (Sterling strength) a big negative in both periods. On an adjusted basis (‘Commercial’ in new parlance), FY cash generation increased from £28m to £53m y/y, covering the FY dividend 1.56x. We place little importance on IFRS profits, but H2 net income of £9m was materially lower than H1’s £18m, with the FY result up materially y/y from £21m to £27m. The key difference to the H2 result on a Solvency II basis was the negative impact on the Dutch result from higher interest rates, which was a positive on a Solvency II basis. Management sees the M&A market as a bit more active into 2022. It has quantified “fire power to fund a deal over £100m from existing resources” after recent M&A and the £200m tier 2 debt issuance. Its sweet spot remains deals of less than £500m in value, with appetite for UK and Holland, closed and open. We note that Chesnara continues to trade at a material discount to historic yield multiples, despite 17 years of unbroken dividend growth, a much stronger track record than its peers. Our price target, based on a 6% FY22E dividend yield, is unchanged.

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