This content is only available within our institutional offering.

31 Mar 2022
Chesnara : Positioning for growth after solid FY - Buy

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Chesnara : Positioning for growth after solid FY - Buy
- Published:
31 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Ben Cohen -
Pages:
9 -
Own Funds per share of 372p was 4p (1%) light of our forecast, and down 10p on H1. H2 was impacted, as expected, by symmetric adjustment from rising equity markets, albeit less than in H1, with a small (£8m) impact from inflation, partly offset by £3.5m reinsurance benefit. The company’s preferred measure, ECV, declined by 1% on H1 to 416p per share.
Solvency II coverage ratio was 152% versus 153% at H1, and our 153% forecast. Pro-forma for recent deals and debt issuance, the coverage ratio is 182%, with target range still 140-160%.
The lower symmetric adjustment headwind was also the key driver of the H2 improvement on H1 in group cash generation from £5m to £15m, with FX (Sterling strength) a big negative in both periods. On an adjusted basis (‘Commercial’ in new parlance), FY cash generation increased from £28m to £53m y/y, covering the FY dividend 1.56x.
We place little importance on IFRS profits, but H2 net income of £9m was materially lower than H1’s £18m, with the FY result up materially y/y from £21m to £27m. The key difference to the H2 result on a Solvency II basis was the negative impact on the Dutch result from higher interest rates, which was a positive on a Solvency II basis.
Management sees the M&A market as a bit more active into 2022. It has quantified “fire power to fund a deal over £100m from existing resources” after recent M&A and the £200m tier 2 debt issuance. Its sweet spot remains deals of less than £500m in value, with appetite for UK and Holland, closed and open.
We note that Chesnara continues to trade at a material discount to historic yield multiples, despite 17 years of unbroken dividend growth, a much stronger track record than its peers. Our price target, based on a 6% FY22E dividend yield, is unchanged.