Raised capital forecasts… Post year-end, and ahead of the full year results on March 30th, we update forecasts for changes in asset values since H1 2020. Net is a high single-digit uplift to Own Funds per share, principally due to stronger equity markets and narrowed credit spreads. …but lowered capital strength. Unlike larger peers, Chesnara does not provide sensitivities for its solvency ratio, but given that there was a material benefit to the solvency ratio in H1 from lower capital requirements due to a fall in equity markets, we forecast a negative impact in H2 on a strong recovery in equity markets, with the Swedish market up c.13% in H2. Flattish solvency over the year consistent with peers. We would put our lowered solvency forecast for Chesnara (at a group level) in the context of estimates of flat to down solvency ratios forecast for peers, year-over-year, such that ending the year in the same position as at the beginning should be seen as a reasonable result. Higher risk-free rates in 2021 should be supportive of a higher marked-to-market solvency position, however. In part due to the volatility of asset values, but also reflecting Chesnara’s long track record of uninterrupted dividend growth, we base our price target on a target dividend yield of 6%, against 8% currently. That said, the c.30% discount to Own Funds does stand out, and may well have increased since year-end. Should the gap continue to widen if bond yields move higher, the rationale for a private equity or strategic acquirer would increase, we believe.