Volumes as expected, EBITDA & EPS ahead; FY outlook unchanged The Q2 results are not as poor as expected. Organic volume -1.4% in Q2 (company compiled consensus -1.4%) is as expected and organic revenue +7.2% (consensus +6.4%) is comfortably ahead. The key North American organic volume figure was -14.1% (consensus -14.4%), reflecting the Bud Light consumer backlash. Growth in other regions, notably Asia Pacific +9.5%, was able to mostly offset the pressure in North America. Underlying EBITDA in Q2 was +5.0% on an organic basis (consensus +0.4%). Excluding the one-off tax credit in the prior year in Brazil, organic growth would have been broadly flat – but this benefit was known and should have been incorporated in the consensus already, meaning the beat is a real beat. It appears to have been driven by stronger than expected delivery across multiple regions including South America, Middle Americas and EMEA. North America EBITDA was -24.4% in Q2 (consensus -28.8%), with EBITDA in the US specifically -28.2%. Revenue/hl still grew 5.2% in the US during Q2 due to revenue growth management initiatives. Underlying EPS of $0.72 (consensus $0.67) is a 7.5% beat. The FY outlook for EBITDA and revenue growth is unchanged. Net debt/EBITDA rose again to 3.7x (it was 3.5x at December 2022) due to the seasonality of working capital and the phasing of capex investments. Approximately 64% of ABI’s revenue is now generated through its B2B digital platforms and $115m of revenue is generated through its DTC channels. Overall, we consider this to be a better result than had been feared, and the unchanged FY outlook is also positive. Consensus is at the low end of the guided range for FY23, so estimates may nudge up slightly (1-2%) on the back of today’s results.