Q3 EBITDA is well ahead of expectations, but EPS beats by just 1% Q3 organic volume -3.4% (company-compiled consensus -2.7%) is worse than expected, but organic revenue and EBITDA are both better than expected and at the bottom-line EPS is 1% ahead. North America volumes were -17.1% (consensus -14.3%) as the US STWs were -17.6%. In Europe, volumes fell 1.5% (consensus -2.0%). Q3 organic revenue is +5.0% (consensus +4.7%). Although ABI lost share y-o-y in the US, the US beer industry was estimated to have grown 3.3% in Q3. Q3 organic EBITDA is +4.1% (consensus +0.3%), helped by South America +54.5% (consensus +25.3%) and Middle Americas +14.5% (consensus +11.5%). The North America and EMEA EBITDA performances were both also better than feared. US EBITDA fell 29.3% in Q3 as operating deleverage hit the P&L. A strong performance in Brazil (EBITDA margin +628bps) was attributed to moderating cost inflation and mix, as ABI actually lost a small amount of beer volume share in the quarter. We believe modest top-line and strong margins will characterise most FMCG company performances in 2024 – ABI is seeing this margin benefit a little earlier than other companies, as it was affected by adverse inflation earlier than most. Q3 underlying EPS is $0.86 (consensus $0.85). Outlook unchanged The outlook is unchanged from 4-8% EBITDA growth and revenue growth ahead of EBITDA growth. Consensus currently forecasts EBITDA +6.1% and revenue +8.2%, and the 9M23 EBITDA growth has been +7.3%, so we expect consensus will nudge up slightly, c 1-2% on an underlying basis, although FX could potentially offset that. Management hosts a conference call later today at 1pm GMT. Webcast link here