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  • 24 Feb 2022

First Take: AB InBev - Delivering volume and price growth


Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0

  • Investec Bank
    • Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: AB InBev - Delivering volume and price growth


Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0

  • Published: 24 Feb 2022
  • Author: Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


Strong finish to the year, slightly ahead of consensus Volumes were +3.6% in Q4 on an organic basis (consensus +3.1%). Price/mix of 8.1% (consensus +5.4%) in Q4 led to organic revenue +12.1% (consensus +8.5%). FY21 EBITDA +11.8% (consensus +11.4%) was towards the upper end of the guidance range of 10-12%, with Q4 organic EBITDA growth of +5.0% (consensus +4.0%). The dividend was held again at €0.50/sh, and net debt/EBITDA stood just under 4x at 3.96x at the end of 2021. Innovation & premiumisation continue The Global Brands grew revenue by 23.5% in Q4, and 22.9% in FY21, outside of their more mature home markets. Premium priced brands are now 1/3 of total revenue, up 200bps y-o-y. Innovations delivered more than $5bn in revenue over FY21, representing c. 10% of group revenue. The Beyond Beer business (ciders, RTDs etc.) grew by over 20% in FY21 and is now $1.6bn of revenue. The US seltzer portfolio grew 1.7x the industry growth rate. Key market performance in Q4: US revenue +2.6% and EBITDA -1.2% (higher SG&A), Brazil revenue +5.4% and EBITDA 20.5% (FX & commodities), Mexico revenue +HSD and EBITDA +HSD, China revenue c. +20% and EBITDA +30.1%, South Africa revenue +mid-teens and EBITDA +high-teens. Outlook in-line with consensus Management expects 2022 EBITDA to grow by 4-8%, with revenue growth ahead of this rate and to be delivered through a “healthy combination of volume and price”. Consensus currently forecasts +6.6% organic EBITDA growth and +7.5% organic revenue growth in 2022, so this outlook is in-line with expectations. There is a conference call at 2pm GMT / 9am ET.

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