This content is only available within our institutional offering.

24 Feb 2022
First Take: AB InBev - Delivering volume and price growth

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
First Take: AB InBev - Delivering volume and price growth
- Published:
24 Feb 2022 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
4 -
Strong finish to the year, slightly ahead of consensus
Volumes were +3.6% in Q4 on an organic basis (consensus +3.1%). Price/mix of 8.1% (consensus +5.4%) in Q4 led to organic revenue +12.1% (consensus +8.5%).
FY21 EBITDA +11.8% (consensus +11.4%) was towards the upper end of the guidance range of 10-12%, with Q4 organic EBITDA growth of +5.0% (consensus +4.0%).
The dividend was held again at €0.50/sh, and net debt/EBITDA stood just under 4x at 3.96x at the end of 2021.
Innovation & premiumisation continue
The Global Brands grew revenue by 23.5% in Q4, and 22.9% in FY21, outside of their more mature home markets. Premium priced brands are now 1/3 of total revenue, up 200bps y-o-y.
Innovations delivered more than $5bn in revenue over FY21, representing c. 10% of group revenue.
The Beyond Beer business (ciders, RTDs etc.) grew by over 20% in FY21 and is now $1.6bn of revenue. The US seltzer portfolio grew 1.7x the industry growth rate.
Key market performance in Q4: US revenue +2.6% and EBITDA -1.2% (higher SG&A), Brazil revenue +5.4% and EBITDA 20.5% (FX & commodities), Mexico revenue +HSD and EBITDA +HSD, China revenue c. +20% and EBITDA +30.1%, South Africa revenue +mid-teens and EBITDA +high-teens.
Outlook in-line with consensus
Management expects 2022 EBITDA to grow by 4-8%, with revenue growth ahead of this rate and to be delivered through a “healthy combination of volume and price”. Consensus currently forecasts +6.6% organic EBITDA growth and +7.5% organic revenue growth in 2022, so this outlook is in-line with expectations.
There is a conference call at 2pm GMT / 9am ET.