Social distancing to significantly impact beer ABI has withdrawn its FY20 guidance in light of the recent social distancing measures taken to slow the spread of coronavirus, which are impacting its business. Globally, the on-trade represents 55-60% of beer category sales revenue, and not all of the lost sales in the on-trade will be replaced in the off-trade; we had flagged the risk to Alcohol companies in our recent note ‘Reality check’ [here]. Many other Consumer companies have already withdrawn their FY guidance. We note another Alcohol company, Pernod, has just this morning revised its FY20 guidance on organic EBIT development to -20% (from +2-4% as of mid-February). In the case of ABI, which has already fallen 42% year to date, 13% worse than the Stoxx 600 European index, we believe the risk has been priced in quicker than it has been for Pernod. Australian deal still going ahead ABI and Asahi are working with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and Foreign Investment Review Board regarding the sale of ABI’s Australian business for AUD16bn. Despite the global disruption from coronavirus, ABI expects the deal could still close in Q2 of 2020. There had been some concern from investors that the deal could fall through, so this statement is reassuring.