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29 Jul 2021
First Take: AB InBev - Outlook maintained despite small miss

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First Take: AB InBev - Outlook maintained despite small miss
- Published:
29 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
4 -
Despite a 4% EPS miss, the demand trends are reassuring
Q2 volumes +20.8% (consensus 19.4%) reflect a strong rebound against soft comps. Q2 rev/hl of +5.8% (consensus +4.7%) is also very impressive. While revenue growth was better than expected, organic EBITDA +31.0% (consensus +35.3%) was slightly below expectations, held back by transactional FX and commodity costs. SG&A also rose as variable compensation accruals started to kick in as a result of the better top-line performance.
US STWs were +2.9% (consensus North America volumes +4.7%), and US EBITDA grew just 1.3% (consensus North America EBITDA +6.8%). Given the weight of North America in the group, this appears to be the main area of disappointment, along with Q2 misses in EMEA and South America. Asia Pacific and Middle Americas outperformed vs expectations.
Revenue growth of the Global Brands (Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona) +19.3% outside their home markets demonstrates that these brands continue to appeal to consumers around the world.
‘Underlying EPS’ of $0.75 was 4% light of consensus and ‘normalized EPS’ missed by the same amount.
Net debt/EBITDA was 4.4x at the end of June, down from 4.8x at the start of the year.
The FY outlook is unchanged, with organic EBITDA 8-12% and organic revenue to grow ahead of this rate. Finance, tax and capex guidance are all unchanged as well. Management hosts a call at 2pm BST; this will be the new CEO’s first set of results.
Reasons we like ABI
ABI continues to succeed at stretching its portfolio and capabilities beyond Beer. These new areas grew revenue by 45% in Q2 and are delivering an average gross profit per hl that is 20% higher than the base Beer business.
The B2B digital platform BEES grew revenue over 50% sequentially since Q1 and is now capturing $4.5bn of GMV. In the 7 initial focus markets for the BEES rollout, 60-90% of addressable revenue has already switched to digital.