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28 Oct 2021
First Take: AB InBev - Q3 beats, FY outlook raised

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First Take: AB InBev - Q3 beats, FY outlook raised
- Published:
28 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
4 -
Broad-based top-line and EBITDA beats across the regions, despite headwinds
Q3 results are stronger than expected, with organic volumes +3.4% (consensus -0.1%), organic revenue +7.9% (consensus +4.2%) and organic EBITDA +3.0% (consensus -2.3%). This is a very impressive result in light of the ongoing supply chain issues and COVID-19 related restrictions in some markets. The mainstream portfolio of brands grew revenue 4.0%, while the premium portfolio grew revenue 11.3%.
The positive surprises were widespread across the group. All regions were ahead of expectations except for Asia Pacific, where both China and South Korea suffered from further COVID-19 restrictions.
Management raised the bottom-end of FY guidance to 10-12% organic EBITDA growth (previously 8-12%).
The restricted shares issued during the SAB deal are now unrestricted as of 11th October. Thus far there have been conversion requests for about 42.3m shares, out of the 326m total restricted shares issued.
Input costs and mark to market headwinds curb EPS growth
EBITDA margins fell 174bps yoy, as input costs, FX and supply chain costs were significant drags.
The mark to market on hedges linked to the share based payment programmes was a hit of $683m to the P&L in Q3.
The company’s ‘normalised EPS’ of $0.50 was 11% ahead of consensus of $0.45. The ‘underlying EPS’ of $0.85 was 4% ahead of consensus of $0.82
Management hosts a call later this afternoon, as is their usual practice.
Growth areas remain strong
ABI’s hard seltzer portfolio is growing at 1.8x the rate of the segment in the US, and continues to expand globally. The Beyond Beer portfolio in total generated $1.2bn of the group’s revenue.
The BEES digital B2B platform handled over $5.5bn in GMV during Q3, and in South Africa it accounts for 80% of revenue.