ABI Q1 results represent a beat vs expectations at a number of levels. We highlight, in the first instance, the organic volume and sales trends vs key peer Heineken (Not Rated): for the first time in six quarters, ABI’s 13.2% sales growth beat Heineken’s 8.9% in Q1 and its 0.9% volume growth was ahead of Heineken’s -3%. The challenged US business continued to lose share, but top line is in growth thanks to ongoing premiumisation trends (revenue +4.0% but STWs -1.6%, STRs -3.0%). Other divisions generally delivered robust top-line performance that was ahead of expectations, with Asia very strong off an admittedly low base. Management has chosen to leave FY23 guidance unchanged (4-8% organic EBITDA growth) despite the significant beat in Q1. The broader macro environment and inflation were reasons cited, but we sense forecast risk now lies to the upside. We are somewhat surprised at the initially muted reaction of the shares yesterday as we believe consensus is likely to move to the top of the 4-8% range (currently consensus is at +5.6% for FY23E).
