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  • 06 May 2021

First Take: AB InBev - The end of an era


Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0

  • Investec Bank
    • Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: AB InBev - The end of an era


Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0

  • Published: 06 May 2021
  • Author: Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


Q1 beat across all regions; CEO to step down Q1 results are overshadowed today by the announcement that the CEO, Carlos Brito, will be stepping down on 1st July 2021 and will be replaced by the current head of North America, Michel Doukeris. The Q1 results are strong on the top-line, but closer to in-line at EPS. Organic volumes +13.3% were well ahead of expectations (consensus +7.3%), and organic revenues +17.2% were also better than expected (consensus +8.7%). All regions beat expectations. Profitability was hampered by various cost headwinds, as flagged earlier in the year, with the EBITDA margin -91bps y-o-y. Nevertheless, Q1 organic EBITDA +14.2% was still much better than expected (consensus +6.6%), helped by brand mix and cost discipline. Normalized net profit is 3.5% ahead of consensus; underlying net profit (excludes some additional items) is a very slight 2% miss. Management hosts a conference call for investors and analysts at 2pm BST. Regional performance North America, the group’s largest region, faced tough pantry-loading comps but returned to good growth in April. Organic volumes +2.9% (consensus -0.5%), organic revenue +5.0% (consensus +1.5%) and EBITDA were all better than expected. Middle Americas delivered solid top-line growth with volumes +10.4% (consensus +4.0%) and revenue +16.0% (consensus +7.0%), with better EBITDA progression +10.6% (consensus +3.5%). Colombia, a large market for ABI, grew top and bottom-line by more than 20% on an organic basis. Over 50% of revenue in Mexico is now ordered through the digital B2B platform. South America (volumes +12.1%) beat consensus +8.0%. EBITDA growth +23.3% was much better than feared (consensus +2.7%). The strong performance despite the lack of carnival this year is impressive. The global brands grew by almost 20%. EMEA continued to be impacted by on-trade restrictions across the region as well as alcohol bans in S. Africa, and was the only region in volume decline during Q1 (Europe fell low single digits & S. Africa was in slight decline). Organic revenue was 0.4% (consensus -7.5%). The region was the biggest drag on group EBITDA growth, delivering -14.0% (consensus -17.4%). Asia Pacific was the fastest growing region during Q1, given the easy comp in the year ago period. Organic revenue was +61.7% (consensus +51.2%) and organic EBITDA was 166.6% (consensus +137.4%). China is now back above the pre-crisis revenue level.

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