We highlight ABI’s impressive rally (until Friday 5 June) of 72% (USD) vs its 18 March low, but note that it is still the worst-performing consumer staple YTD (-39% until Thursday 11 June). More importantly, the stock is still down 61% compared to its 5yr zenith (July 2016). The peer group (excluding tobacco stocks) is down only 14% compared to individual stock peaks. ABI is clearly the high-beta play in the consumer staples world at present: in the period 1 January 2020 to 18 March 2020, it was by far the worst performer (-59% in USD, Investec Consumer Staples Index -21%); it rallied hardest in the period 18 March to 5 June (+72% in USD, ICSI +26%); it fell hardest this week up until Thursday’s close (-14% in USD, ICSI -1%). Relative strength/weakness in USD has been a key factor, given ABI’s 50% skew to EM with balance sheet leverage to boot. Most of the stock’s weakness can be ascribed to a derating and valuation leakage associated with SAB divestments, but we also show that EBITDA excluding merger benefits has fallen 10% since FY17A and will decline another 18% this year (our estimate). The decline since FY14A (-36%) has been even greater, with EM FX weakness a key factor. Note that we exclude all divested SAB assets (including Carlton & United) in our calculations.